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Homeracing

How to bet the $14,186 Pick 5 carryover at Fair Grounds on Jan. 30

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

January 30th, 2021

Heads up! Following an afternoon of upsets on Friday at Fair Grounds, the Saturday card will feature an enticing $14,186 carryover in the Late Pick 5.

The sequence kicks off in Race 6 and contains 52 horses before scratches, setting the stage for lofty payoffs.

Want to join in on the Pick 5 action? We’ve got a $45 play to get you started. Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence:

Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 mile on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#8 News Break (3-1) finished second by a neck over this course and class level last month, earning a 73 Brisnet Speed rating. The son of American Pharoah is a logical favorite for ultra-hot trainer Wayne Catalano (a 32% winner this meet), but #7 Summer Time (7-2) can put up a fight.

Though Summer Time never fired in a pair of recent dirt starts, the son of Summer Front previously performed well in five turf runs, posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 74-79 range. Returning to grass and dropping down from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company should make Summer Time dangerous.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (6 furlongs, 4:54 p.m. ET)

#4 Colonel Bowman (5-2) posted a promising 83 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 2. The son of Curlin will add blinkers for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, who strikes at a 26% rate with second-time starters. He’ll be a short price, but Colonel Bowman looks like a deserving single.

Race 8: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 5:23 p.m. ET)

This is arguably the most competitive leg of the Pick 5, and it’s tough to feel confident without spreading deep. I’ll take something of a scattershot approach and use #2 Extraordinary (7-2), #3 Trident Hit (9-2), #6 Victory Boulevard (8-1), #7 Lemon Kick (8-1), and #8 Majestic West (5-1).

Race 9: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:52 p.m. ET)

#1 Dance Rhythms (5-1) and #4 Originator (6-1) have put up solid form lines sprinting against quality competition. Last October, then came home second and third in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance dash at Keeneland, beaten only by future stakes winner Elle Z.

#3 Whimsical Muse (5-1) is also worth including after rallying fast to finish third over this course, distance, and class level on Dec. 13, beaten only a neck despite encountering some trouble down the lane.

I prefer these three over morning line favorite #9 In Good Spirits (3-1), a front-runner cutting back in distance off a series of solid efforts running a mile or farther. Saturday’s race figures to unfold at a much quicker pace than In Good Spirits is accustomed to facing, which could place her at a disadvantage.

Race 10: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 furlongs, 6:21 p.m. ET)

The versatile #6 Win Ya Win (9-2) has cracked the trifecta in six of his seven starts while employing a wide variety of running styles. An improving 4-year-old, Win Ya Win finished second in the Dec. 12 Louisiana Champions Day Sprint S. at Fair Grounds and brings the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix.

But #7 Charge the Line (8-1) has also posted competitive figures and boasts a sharp 16-4-6-2 record at Fair Grounds. Plus, we can’t ignore #5 My Wise Cat (7-2), a front-running winner over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 19. Representing hot jockey/trainer duo James Graham and Tom Amoss, My Wise Cat will be tough to catch if he takes even a small step forward off his last race.

We’ll use all three to conclude our Pick 5.

The Ticket

Race 6, $0.50-cent Pick 5: 7,8 with 4 with 2,3,6,7,8 with 1,4,9 with 5,6,7 ($45)

Good luck!

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