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Homeracing

How to bet the 2017 Risen Star and supporting stakes at Fair Grounds

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

February 25th, 2017

The Risen Star Stakes not only kicks off the Kentucky Derby Championship Series but also anchors a 6-stakes card among 12 races today at Fair Grounds.

As part of that stakes six pack in which five of the added-money events are graded, TwinSpires.com is putting up 3-million points for those who wager at least $150 on all six stakes races with the added requirement that the player also bets all six races. That works out to $25/race, but of course, most players are likely to have stronger opinions in certain races. You could bet $2 to show on five of the races and $140 on the sixth race.

Race 5, Colonel Power Overnight Stakes, 2:18 p.m. ET

This race has two obvious standouts in #1 Green Mask and #2 Hogy, but neither has to win, and even among them I prefer the longer price on the morning line, Hogy (3-to-1 to Green Mask’s 7-to-5). #6 Grand Candy is the most interesting alternative to me as one who will likely get first jump on Hogy and will be right there with Green Mask when the real running starts. At 3x-4x the price as that one I’ll bet he can spring the surprise. #5 Curlino is also worth watching, as 20-to-1 is an OK price on the one who will get last run. That’s normally not a trip I love in turf sprints, but the price is right for a horse who can be competitive.

The bet: $1 exacta 5, 6 over 1, 2, 5, 6 & 1, 2 over 5, 6 ($10)

Race 7, Daisy Devine, 4:12 p.m. ET

I liked #7 Believe in Bertie in this spot even with Freudie Anne in the race, but now with her out, it’s very difficult to see how she doesn’t win this gate-to-wire with the logical horses chasing behind her.

The bet: $5 exacta 7-8 ($5)

Race 8, Mineshaft H., 4:39 p.m. ET

This race feels ripe for an upset for me, so I’ll reach for the high-hanging fruit and play against morning line choices Eagle and International Star. Dazzling Gem is the top pick here, hoping the last effort was a return to form more than a slop aberration. 5-to-1 is a fair price to find out. Rise Up has pace from the rail, and December Seven could get an OK trip behind him considering Eagle between them will drop back. Dalmore is the other intriguing choice. He has races fast enough to win this, and I find that hard to ignore at 6-to-1 (DALMORE SCRATCHED).

The bet: $1 exacta wheel 1, 3, 6 with all ($18); $1 exacta box 1, 3, 6 ($6); $1 exacta 2, 7, 8 over 1, 3, 6 ($9); $0.50 trifecta 1, 3, 6 with ALL  with ALL ($45)

Race 9, Rachel Alexandra, 5:06 p.m. ET

If you think you’ve seen this movie before, you have: Last year, Land Over Sea shipped East to win the Fair Grounds Oaks after tussling with Songbird. This year, it’s a race earlier that Fair Grounds gets an also ran to a Jerry Hollendorfer-trained monster, but Shane’s Girlfriend is no less likely despite facing better horses here than Land Over Sea beat last year.

The bet: $20 across the board at 2-to-1 or better. Other $20 eexacta 3 over 2, 5 & $10 exacta 2, 5 over 3 ($60)

Race 10, Fair Grounds Handicap, 5:33 p.m. ET

Another big scratch as the primary threat to Granny’s Kitten is out, leaving the Colonel Bradley winner a formidable foe here. Only question is does Oscar Nominated fire from outside with lack of pace elsewhere and go gate to wire. They are stablemates. Tough race to really sink teeth into.

The bet: $5 to win on #5 ($5)

Race 11, the Risen Star Stakes, 6 p.m. ET (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances)

The main event, and I think it will be won on the front end, either by #3 Local Hero gate to wire or by #8 Cool Arrow getting best finish among those on the second tier. I’ll sell #9 Mo Town and let the Remsen Stakes winner beat me at a short price (especially since I’m not overly creative in races 9 or 10 from a Pick 4 perspective).

The bet: $5 across on #8 Cool Arrow ($15)

TOTAL BET: $173

BONUS ALL-STAKES PICK 4 PLAY (races 8-11)

$0.50 Pick 4 wheel ALL with 3 with 5 with ALL ($44 pending scratches)

$0.50 Pick 4 part wheel 1, 3, 6 with 3 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8 ($37.50)

$0.50 Pick 4 part wheel 1, 3, 6 with 2, 3, 5 with 5 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8 ($22.5o) 

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