How to bet the 2017 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park

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Ed DeRosa

January 16th, 2017

Over at Thoroughbred Daily News, The Smarty Jones Stakes (click for FREE PPs) on Monday, January 16, at Oaklawn Park kicks off the Road to the Triple Crown throwdown, and as I said in my write up to take down Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, this race interests me more from a wagering standpoint than a pick standpoint.

But the name of the Throwdown game is picking winners, so I went with Warrior’s Club “on top” but the name of the pari-mutuel game is winning money, so for that reason it won’t hurt my feelings if Petrov (Steve’s pick) or the Uncontested (the likely favorite) win if Unbridled Eagle (Brian’s pick) or Rowdy the Warrior do well. #7 Romeo O Romeo wouldn’t be the end of the world, either, as the pedigree augers for another try going a route given the expected price.

Basically, I need one of the prices in the exacta, and given the trips the top choices (Petrov, Warrior’s Club, and Uncontested) should get varying trips, so they all can’t be ideal. Uncontested will want the lead. If he gets it he could be gone, which hampers Petrov’s chances. However, if Romeo O Romeo and/or Love That Lute go with him then Warrior’s Club could get first run with Uncontested folding. And if it’s all too fast for all of them then Petrov could be the one to sweep by them all.

Again, the gamble is in getting Unbridled Eagle, Rowdy the Warrior, or Romeo O Romeo in the number. In the below scenario, we have $12 to win on the logicals and $5 each on the longshots, BUT $34.50 of the $51 is on the longshots finishing 2nd. Hopefully that's where the value is.

$1 exacta part wheel 1, 2, 6 with 4, 5, 7 ($9)

$1 exacta part wheel 4, 5, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 ($15)

$0.50 trifecta part wheel 1, 2, 6 with 1, 2, 6 with 4, 5, 7 ($9)

$0.50 trifecta part wheel 1, 2, 6 with 4, 5, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 ($18)