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Homeracing

How to bet the 2018 Dowager Stakes at Keeneland

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

October 19th, 2018

Vexatious wins the CTT and TOC Stakes at Del Mar (c) Benoit Photo

A field of 10 turf distaffers will go 1 1/2 miles on the Keeneland lawn in Sunday’s $125,000 Dowager Stakes (G3).

VIVA VEGAS (#1) (8-1) ran arguably her best race to date in preparation of this one. The Derek Ryan-trained Violet Stakes (G3) runner-up has speed and the rail while stretching out to 12 furlongs for the initial time. Tyler Gaffalione will be on board.

ENGLISH AFFAIR (#2) (8-1) has yet to try a marathon distance prior to the Dowager. The English Channel filly is bred to thrive going long, though, and she has some upset appeal. Brian Hernandez Jr. will be in the silks for trainer Rusty Arnold.

SAVANNAH BELLE (#3) (12-1) was fifth in the Glens Falls Stakes (G2) at Saratoga last out for trainer Brian Lynch. The four-year-old former claimer will need a step forward to make an impact beneath Ricardo Santana Jr.

SHEZAPRADO (#4) (12-1) has yet to prove her class with this kind. The Kentucky-bred, one of a trio in this contest from the Mike Maker barn, was beaten by 59 lengths in a lone outing on the Keeneland course.

DARING DUCHESS (#5) (5-2) lacks consistency but can be very dangerous on her best day. The multiple-stakes winning Arch mare moves up if the ground has some give to it. Jose Ortiz riding is cause for optimism.

AMBOSELI (#6) (5-1), who invades from California, is winless since 2016 for conditioner James Cassidy. The Medaglia d’Oro mare would surprise in her local debut under Mike Smith.

BEACH FLOWER (#7) (15-1) has yet to win on the green and picks an ambitious spot to break through on turf. The Mac Robertson trainee has been vastly improved since adding blinkers three back, though, and the Flower Alley five-year-old comes off an allowance romp on the dirt here.

RES IPSA (#8) (6-1) is a winner on the course and comes off an encouraging third at Kentucky Downs going 1 5/16 miles for trainer Ian Wilkes. The logical daughter of English Channel has a consistent turn of foot and is a top-three must use to me.

RAHWAY (#9) (15-1) has been little factor in her three stakes tries to date. Third of the Maker trio , the sophomore lass will face elders and simply looks a cut below at this stage of her development.

VEXATIOUS (#10) (7-2) exits a try with the boys in the Northern Dancer Turf (Can-G1) when seventh. The top pick from the Neil Drysdale barn ran her best when taking a turf stakes marathon at Del Mar two back. Florent Geroux inherits the mount on the Giant’s Causeway filly and will be running them down late.

ANALYSIS

Viva Vegas from the rail, and Daring Duchess, are both speedy sorts and the duo should ensure of an honest pace in the Dowager. I expect the winner to come from off the early tempo.

WAGER

$20 Win and Place #10 VEXATIOUS = $40
50-cent Superfecta Part-Wheel 10 with 1,2,5,8 with 1,2,5,8 with all = $42

 

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