How to bet the $25,137 Late Pick 5 carryover on Dec. 28 at Fair Grounds

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December 28th, 2020

Christmas week was quiet at Fair Grounds, but the New Orleans oval is making up for lost time with a special Monday card featuring a $25,137 Late Pick 5 carryover.

Key horses in Races 6-10

The sequence begins with Race 6 (4:25 p.m. ET), a $30,000 maiden claiming race for 2-year-old fillies. The par Brisnet Speed rating for this class level and distance is a 77, but none of the experienced runners have ever reached this plateau. The speedy #4 Blonde On Tap (5-2) has come closest, but it shouldn’t take a huge effort for a longshot or first-time starter to step up and steal the show.

One possibility is #7 Effloresce (8-1). She’s never raced, but trainer Danny Pish wins at a sharp 19% rate with debut runners, and sire Too Much Bling is responsible for 15% winners from first-time starters.

Race 7 (4:54 p.m. ET), a maiden special weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies, has drawn a wide-open field with plenty of contenders to consider. Spreading deep may be necessary to survive the Pick 5. #1 Special Assistant (5-2) and #8 Unwanted Input (3-1) have both shown potential sprinting on grass, but #4 Bell Day (8-1) has flashed speed on dirt and will be a force to reckon with if she handles the switch to grass.

Race 8 (5:23 p.m. ET), a 6-furlong allowance optional claiming event, presents a possible single in the form of #8 Coltonator (5-2). The son of Congrats brings the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation and ran into significant traffic in his most recent run, finishing fifth after getting trapped behind a wall of horses in the homestretch. With a clean run, Coltonator will be formidable.

Juvenile fillies will return to the spotlight in Race 9 (5:52 p.m. ET), a 5 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race over the turf course. #8 Doc Girl (3-1) was a sharp debut winner over this course and 5 1/2-furlong distance on Dec. 3, but #4 New Boss (9-2) has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, and #1 Taylor’s Tourist (6-1) placed in the Untapable S. sprinting on grass at Kentucky Downs. Using all three, plus the well-bred #9 Spun d’Etat (7-2), may be the best strategy.

The finale is Race 10 (6:21 p.m. ET), a low-level $5,000 claimer for Louisiana-breds that have never won two races. #1 Amazing American (9-5) has placed second twice over this class level during the last month and looms as a logical favorite, but #9 Outamine (6-1) has shown speed against much tougher company than this, and #5 Gem of Carlos (4-1) brings a series of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix.

Late Pick 5 Wager

It’s a tough sequence, but a 50-cent ticket along these lines should stand a chance to take home a share of the pot:

50-cent Late Pick 5: 4,7 with 1,4,8 with 8 with 1,4,8,9 with 1,5,9 ($36)

Good luck!