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Homeracing

How to bet the Assiniboia Downs $20,606 Pick 4 carryover on Wednesday night

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

July 13th, 2016

There is a $20,606 into the Pick 4 tonight at Assiniboia Downs, which is a pretty decent add-on for a $1 sequence that only takes 15% off the top anyway. With that carryover and that takeout on new money, there’d have to be $137,374 in the pool before the proposition becomes anything worse (for today’s player) than break even.

The biggest question of the sequence is what you do in leg 1 (race 4), a $25,000 stakes for two-year-olds that handicaps like a maiden special weight on paper considering that six of the nine entrants are first-time starters.

The rest of the sequence is pretty straight forward with fields of 7, 7, and 9 and a vulnerable morning line favorite in leg 3, race 6.

As for the maiden race, it all comes down to the best performer of those who have ran, and the best bred horse of those who haven’t.

In the former category is #7 Go She’s Italian, who finished second behind Ma’s Miracle Run in the Bar None Stakes on July 3 at Lethbridge. The winner has not run back yet, but the fourth-place finisher, Gabi and Ryder, is in the first race, so her performance merits some watching (more so if she does well than not considering she was more than 13 lengths behind Go She’s Italian in the Bar None.

The best bred award goes to #8 Atanygivenmoment, one of two Kentucky-bred fillies in the field this one by Any Given Saturday out of the Salt Lake mare Lake Merced, whose first foal was a stakes winner at two. The other Kentucky-bred in the field is the First Defence filly Me First, but only one of her seven siblings to race won as a two-year-old. I would only include her on the ticket if she were clearly taking win money.

I’m going into this Pick 4 only wanting to use 7 & 8, but either the aforementioned Me First, the Florida-bred Hot And Wild, or the local product Smart Sense would make me add them if they take money. I am willing to let #9 Dark Desert Wine beat me from the far outside on the ship from Canterbury.

At a minimum, this ticket will be in play:

Assiniboia Downs, race 4, $1 Pick 4 part wheel: 7, 8 with 1, 3, 5, 7 with 3, 4 with 2, 5, 9 ($48)

Also of note if you like Assiniboia Downs, its Super High 5 jackpot carryover is up to $206,209, and if you like free money Pick 4s, there's a 20% bonus on the late Pick 4 every Thursday when you wager on Arlington Park at TwinSpires.

GOOD LUCK!

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