How to bet the Blame Stakes

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 22nd, 2020

A one-turn mile can be very different from a two-turn mile, a key factor to consider when handicapping Saturday’s $100,000 Blame S. at Churchill Downs.

The third leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 featuring a guaranteed pool of $500,000, the inaugural running of the Blame figures to be a hotly contested affair. The race will begin out of the backstretch chute, giving the field a half-mile to vie for position before hitting the first turn. With 14 horses in the mix, you can bet the early pace will be intense.

The conditions of the Blame appear made to order for #3 Global Campaign (9-2), a stoutly-bred son of Curlin who is 3-for-3 in one-turn races. Global Campaign showed flashes of serious talent as a 3-year-old, most notably in the Peter Pan (G3) at Belmont Park, where he clocked 1 1/8 miles around one turn in a blazing 1:46.71 to defeat future Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Sir Winston in comfortable fashion.

Global Campaign kicked off his 2020 campaign on a winning note, rallying from behind fast fractions to nab a 7-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in the snappy time of 1:21.71. With this comeback run under his belt, Global Campaign appears poised for a big effort while returning to stakes company for trainer Stanley Hough, who strikes at a 25% rate with horses running for the second time off a layoff.

Assuming the pace is fast, Global Campaign can use his tactical speed and versatility to settle behind the leaders before pouncing in the homestretch. Meanwhile, #8 Owendale (3-1) figures to pick up the pieces and finish on the board.

A three-time Grade 3 winner in 2019, the late-running Owendale was good enough to place in the Preakness (G1) and Clark H. (G1) during a productive campaign that saw him accumulate more than $1 million in purse money. Cutting back to a one-turn mile might benefit this son of Into Mischief, sharpening his late kick while returning from a layoff for hot trainer Brad Cox.

Let’s bet Global Campaign to win, then play him on top of a trifecta while keying Owendale underneath. If you’re betting the Pick 5, Global Campaign might be worth singling at a nice price, allowing you to spread deeper in the other four legs.

$20 to Win on #3 Global Campaign
$2 Trifecta: 3 with 8 with 2,7,9,13,14 ($10)
$2 Trifecta: 3 with 2,7,9,13,14 with 8 ($10)

Good luck!

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