Homeracing

How to bet the Breeders' Cup Mile

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October 30th, 2019

An overflow field of 16 will travel one-mile on the Santa Anita turf in Saturday’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). The ultra-competitive grassy test has a strong international flair with seven European-based runners in the field, adding to the challenge of this fine betting event

Mile Analysis

The pace of the Mile could be a moderate one with a lack of confirmed early pace in the field. I expect #7 Bolo (30-1) to be sent from the break. The longshot will be tracked by #2 Lucullan (12-1), #6 Got Stormy (7-2), #9 Circus Maximus (3-1) and #13 Hey Gaman (12-1), and the race will be decided by that quartet.

Not only will the one-run closers have to weave their way through expected traffic in the stretch, but they will be rallying into a slow pace, as well.

Mile Wagers

  • $1 Superfecta 2 with 6,9,13 with 3,6,9,10,11,13,14 with 3,6,9,10,11,13,14 = $90

Here is the Mile entries and morning line odds

#1 SUEDOIS (20-1) -- Eight-year-old gelding put in a late bid when third in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) most recently. French-bred son of Le Havre is not among the upper echelon of turf milers from abroad, but he is consistent and also has class. Javier Castellano inherits the mount.

#2 LUCULLAN (12-1) -- Underrated Godolphin color bearer has put together four strong races in succession in 2019 and is my top pick. Hard Spun five-year-old comes off a lifetime best when dominating the Knickerbocker S. (G2) at Belmont Park most recently. Tactical five-year-old will never be far back while saving ground under Luis Saez.

#3 SPACE TRAVELLER (12-1) -- Three-year-old colt was a Group 2 winner at Leopardstown in a most recent venture and comes into this test in strong form. Bated Breath colt should appreciate the firm turf, and pilot Daniel Tudhorpe gets off of another contender to ride this sophomore.

#4 TRAIS FLOURS (20-1) -- Ken Condon charge has hit the board in three straight group races, including a smart third behind Zabeel Prince at Longchamp in May. Five-year-old son of Dansili receives Lasix for the initial time with Billy Lee in the silks.

#5 TRUE VALOUR (20-1) -- Simon Callaghan pupil rides in on a two-race win streak, with both graded tallies coming on this course. Interesting longshot will get a class test today, but his form is good and he obviously likes the local turf. Drayden Van Dyke rides.

#6 GOT STORMY (7-2) -- Classy filly was a facile winner of the Fourstardave S. (G1) at Saratoga two prior, and she followed that with a game second in the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) over a drenched surface which she doesn’t thrive upon. Mark Casse trainee has speed combined with a potent late kick, and the Kentucky-bred runs for a trainer who has endured much success in this race recently.

#7 BOLO (30-1) -- Seven-year-old won the Shoemaker Mile S. (G1) in May on this lawn in just his second start over 23 months. Carla Gaines charge has been outrun in a pair of tries since, but the Temple City gelding could be the one to catch with a clean break in the Mile. Julien Leparoux rides.

#8 EL TORMENTA (12-1) -- Upset winner of the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) beat a top field last time out and will be a contender with another forward move on Saturday. Sam-Son Farm homebred smoked a bullet five-eighths in his final major work for this event, and the price will be right.

#9 CIRCUS MAXIMUS (3-1) -- Multiple Group 1 victor looks to have found his niche as a top-class miler for Aidan O’Brien. Galileo three-year-old was game in victory at Longchamp last time out, and he will get both Lasix and blinkers on for his U. S. bow. Irish-bred handles any kind of going and will be forwardly placed beneath Ryan Moore.

#10 WITHOUT PAROLE (20-1) -- Frankel colt had a superb sophomore campaign but has yet to find his best footing in 2019. Bay has faced the top runners from Europe this season with decent results, however, and he comes in fresh for his first run for Chad Brown. Bay has back class with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the silks.

#11 UNI (7-2) -- More Than Ready mare had a great prep for the Mile when dominating the First Lady S. (G1) at Keeneland. Brown trainee dons a 7-6-0-1 mark at the one-mile distance, and she possesses a significant turn of foot. Chestnut will be coming from well back beneath Joel Rosario.

#12 LORD GLITTERS (12-1) -- Whipper gelding is one of two from the David O’Meara barn and reached new heights this season with a tally in the Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot. Gray gelding will be making one run in the stretch under Jamie Spencer.

#13 HEY GAMAN (12-1) -- New Approach colt does his best work on good to firm going and rates a chance in his U. S. debut. Colt gets Lasix today as well as jockey Frankie Dettori, and he has the speed to get involved early in the Mile. Four-year-old is dangerous for trainer James Tate.

#14 BOWIES HERO (12-1) -- Shadwell Mile (G1) star impressed with his recent triumph at Keeneland. California-based five-year-old is a Grade 1 winner on the course, and he will be in the hunt late if able to overcome the widest post. Flavien Prat retains the mount.

Also Eligibles:

#15 CARIBOU CLUB (15-1) -- Tom Proctor trainee has won back-to-back stakes races in sharp fashion, and he also shows a graded win at Santa Anita on his resume. City Zip gelding will need another step forward to challenge this fine cast if he draws in.

#16 NEXT SHARES (30-1) -- Grade 1 victor has not hit the board in five straight races, and while his last at Keeneland was encouraging, the would be a huge surprise after finishing 13th in the race in 2018.

RELATED: All Breeders' Cup coverage by TwinSpires

Breeders' Cup Mile Entries

PPHorseTrainerMorning Line OddsJockey
1
 Suedois (FR)
David O'Meara
20-1
Javier Castellano
2
 Lucullan
Kiaran P. McLaughlin
12-1
Luis Saez
3
 Space Traveller (GB)
Richard A. Fahey
12-1
Daniel Tudhope
4
 Trais Fluors (GB)
Ken Condon
20-1
William James Lee
5
 True Valour (IRE)
Simon Callaghan
20-1
Drayden Van Dyke
6
 Got Stormy
Mark E. Casse
7-2
Tyler Gaffalione
7
 Bolo
Carla Gaines
30-1
Julien Leparoux
8
 El Tormenta
Gail Cox
12-1
Eurico Da Silva
9
 Circus Maximus (IRE)
Aidan P. O'Brien
3-1
Ryan Moore
10
 Without Parole (GB)
Chad C. Brown
20-1
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
11
 Uni (GB)
Chad C. Brown
7-2
Joel Rosario
12
 Lord Glitters (FR)
David O'Meara
12-1
Jamie Spencer
13
 Hey Gaman (GB)
James Tate
12-1
Lanfranco Dettori
14
 Bowies Hero
Philip D'Amato
12-1
Flavien Prat
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