How to bet the Florida Oaks

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

March 5th, 2021

A dozen sophomore fillies, with one being entered as a main track-only contestant, will vie in Saturday’s $200,000 Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. The 1 1/16-mile grassy endeavor attracted an especially strong group of prospects in what I think is one of the better fields assembled for the race in recent years.

Florida Oaks Analysis

#2 Jouster is the one to beat for Todd Pletcher off the strength of her two fine wins since being moved to the green this campaign. The $360,000 daughter of Noble Mission was a dynamic maiden winner at Gulfstream Park two back when leading at every call and earning a 100 Brisnet Speed figure, and the bay overcame a good turf course last time out when topping allowance runners at the same venue. Fleet filly gets the inner post and will be sent from the break beneath regular rider Luis Saez.

Conditioner Graham Motion has a formidable pair of unbeaten fillies in the cast. #3 Mia Martina caught the eye in her first since joining her new barn when making a bold run to topple allowance foes at Gulfstream. Daughter of Not This Time has arguably the best closing kick in the cast, and she will benefit if the pace is swift early on. Julien Leparoux will be up, and I expect the sophomore to be the main danger to the favorite.

#11 Oyster Box, also for Motion, boasts a sensational grassy pedigree and appears to be running towards it from a pair of career engagements. Tapit chestnut is two-for-two lifetime, and her local allowance score was easier than it looks on paper. The Gainesway color bearer will be a top contender if she is able to overcome the wide post assignment.

Sweetest Chant S. (G3) third #10 Domain Expertise graduated on the course by four widening lengths and has to be considered a top-three threat for Chad Brown. The Kitten’s Joy filly is capable of running from up close, or from off the early tempo.

#9 Hindsight bypassed a tougher spot last weekend to make her seasonal debut on Saturday for Oliver. Bay filly registered a pair of solid dirt sprint races at two, and I think that she will thrive with the added ground in the Florida Oaks. If she handles the lawn, I give her a big exotics chance at a price.

Florida Oaks Wagers

  • 50-cent Superfecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 9,10,11 with all ($24)
  • 50-cent Superfecta: 2,3 with 9,10,11 with 2,3 with all ($24)