Homeracing

How to bet the Gulfstream Park Oaks

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

March 26th, 2021

A competitive field of seven sophomore fillies will contest the $200,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on Saturday. The key prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs on April 30 will reward the first four across the wire with points on a 100-40-20-10 structure.

Much like the Florida Derby (G1) later in the card, the affair appears to be an event that lacks much pace, which makes it difficult to break down from a tactical standpoint. #1 Con Lima (3-1) figures to be the one to catch and likely beat for conditioner Todd Pletcher. The Grade 3 heroine, with the exception of her latest outing, is an alert gate horse who often leads the way to the turn for home. The Commissioner filly broke her maiden in front-running fashion on the oval and will be on top early if she gets away clean under Irad. But I am not sure if she will hold on throughout.

I will tab a pair that I expect to track her early on to come out on top. #6 Millefeuille (7-2) showed some interest into the turn before tiring quickly in the Davona Dale S. (G2) off the layoff and will show big improvement on Saturday. Trained by Bill Mott, the homebred daughter of Curlin has displayed decent early foot in the past, and if she runs to her bullet morning drill at Payson Park most recently, then she will be forwardly placed under Gaffalione.

#2 Bow Bow Girl (8-1) led in wire-to-wire fashion when breaking her maiden in smart fashion last time out. And while the fractions were moderate in the early going on that day, I envision the Romans trainee to be sent early from the two post by Lanerie. The Oxbow sophomore gives me the impression of a late bloomer who is coming into her own. The rise in class is substantial, but Bow Bow Girl isn’t facing the deepest field ever assembled.

#3 Crazy Beautiful (5-2) might possess the most raw talent in the field, but her off-the-pace running style is not often conducive to the Gulfstream strip. The Grade 1-placed stakes heroine is a top three must-use, but I don’t love her on top of my wagers.

Glitter Woman S. queen #7 Competitive Speed (8-1) is an underlay at her morning-line price. Competitive Edge chestnut made a very good middle move before tiring some late in a third-place result in  the Davona Dale last out, and a top-three finish is surely within reach if she receives a well-timed ride.

Gulfstream Oaks Wagers

50-cent superfecta part-wheel: 2,6 with 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,2,3,6,7 ($24)

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