How to bet the Louisville Stakes

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

June 11th, 2020

A solid field of 12 will travel 1 1/2 miles on the Churchill Downs lawn in Saturday’s $100,000 Louisville (G3).

Louisville Analysis

The pace of the Louisville will be dictated by #6 Tiz A Slam. #7 Lombo will track from second, with #11 Ry’s The Guy in close attendance from the outside, as well.

Louisville Contenders

#1 PERFECT TAPATINO (20-1) -- Well-bred 6-year-old draws the rail in the turf marathon for Attfield. Chestnut by Perfect Soul makes his U.S. debut on Saturday, and he could be an interesting exotics player at a price with Beschizza up.

#2 SKY PROMISE (20-1) -- Son of Sky Mesa has run on the main surface in nine of his last 10 and picks a tough spot for his return to the green. Bay has mostly solid form, but I prefer others today.

#3 APRECIADO (12-1) -- Consistently good Maker trainee enters off a solid third in the W. L. McKnight (G3) at Gulfstream Park most recently. Skipshot 6-year-old owns a win and a second from two prior local outings, and the Kentucky-bred could receive a nice trip while stalking the pace on Saturday. Martin Garcia will be in the stirrups.

#4 HE’S NO LEMON (15-1) -- Gelded son of Lemon Drop Kid makes his 2020 bow for Motion. Talented 4-year-old capped his sophomore season with a win in the Bald Eagle Derby, and he makes sense for a barn that excels with runners coming off the bench.

#5 ARKLOW (8-5) -- Grade 1 winner and morning-line choice is the one to beat for Brad Cox. An even fifth in the Pegasus Turf (G1) most recently, the son of Arch is a graded victor on the course and will be tough with his best under Geroux.

#6 TIZ A SLAM (7-2) -- Multiple graded winner from the Attfield barn rates an obvious chance as the potential one to catch turning for home. Tiznow 6-year-old won this race in 2019, and he shows a brisk half-mile morning drill in anticipation of his seasonal debut. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the silks.

#7 LOMBO (30-1) -- Outsider is unplaced from two races on the sod in his lifetime and would be a surprise in the Louisville. Graydar gelding could add to the pace of the race, but I don’t envision him challenging for the top prize inside the final furlong.

#8 JAIS’S SOLITUDE (20-1) -- Sneaky exotics contender didn’t fire in a local allowance event last time out, but the Kenneally pupil has a lot of talent and ran big in a lone previous try at 1 1/2 miles. Florida-bred son of Afleet Alex has a lot of room for improvement second off the short break, too. Corey Lanerie will be up.

#9 GOLDEN DRAGON (30-1) -- Skipshot chestnut has been consistent from a trio of tries since coming to the Maker barn, and the gelding stretches out to a marathon trip in this spot. Kentucky-bred is just 2-for-20 lifetime on the lawn, but he did come out victorious in a lone run on the Churchill grass. Talamo will guide the gimmicks contender.

#10 FEARSOME (15-1) -- Bay import has put in a pair of nice efforts since coming to North America for Murphy. Proven stayer has no distance limitations, and I am using him in many of my wagers at a square number under Graham.

#11 RY’S THE GUY (20-1) -- Ian Wilkes trainee has pace and could sit a nice trip throughout the race under Landeros. Upset pick ran huge in the Dueling Grounds Derby at 1 5/16 miles to cap 2019, and I loved his sharp tally in his lone prior run at Churchill Downs, as well. Colt will track the pace from the break.

#12 ADMISSION OFFICE (3-1) -- Point of Entry 5-year-old rates an obvious chance in the field despite drawing widest of all. Brian Lynch charge was a big second at a similar distance at Gulfstream Park two back, and he had a nice prep at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park in advance of the Louisville. Julien Leparoux has the call.

Louisville Wagers

  • $15 Win and Place: #11 Ry’s The Guy ($30)
  • $.50-cent Superfecta: 11 with 5,6,10 with 5,6,10 with all ($27)