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Homeracing

How to bet the Mint Julep Stakes

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

May 28th, 2020

A large and ultra-talented field of 14 fillies and mares will contest Saturday’s $100,000 Mint Julep (G3) at Churchill Downs. The grassy affair features eight individual graded stakes winners in what promises to be a great betting contest.

Mint Julep Analysis

#1 Juliet Foxtrot has pace from the rail and could be the leader into the first turn under Geroux. #14 Mitchell Road will be forcing the tempo from the widest post draw.

Mint Julep Contenders

#1 JULIET FOXTROT (5-2) -- Juddmonte homebred has won or placed in all six starts since coming to the U.S. for Brad Cox. Dansili mare was an impressive winner in her lone run on the course, and she has a tactical edge from the rail as well. Geroux will guide the win contender.

#2 BEAU RECALL (4-1) -- Second of the Cox duo ran first or second in each of her six assignments in 2019. Consistently very good mare owns a Grade 2 win on the surface and is proven capable of running well while fresh. Shaun Bridgmohan inherits the ride.

#3 WINNING ENVELOPE (20-1) -- One-run closer from the Block barn faces a tall task in a very strong field today. More Than Ready filly will need a lifetime best to challenge for the top prize beneath Leparoux.

#4 SHE’SONTHEWARPATH (20-1) -- Margolis trainee has bagged a pair of stakes races from as many tries in 2020. Declaration of War 4-year-old faces her toughest task to date, but she has top-three appeal with Chantal in the stirrups.

#5 LA SIGNARE (20-1) -- Recent Sand Springs S. heroine has some back class and could challenge for a placing with improvement off of her latest venture. 5-year-old bay displayed a fine turn of foot at Gulfstream Park, but she still needs better to upset this field at a square number.

#6 NAY LADY NAY (4-1) -- Chad Brown trainee eclipsed the Mrs. Revere (G2) on this surface in her 2019 finale. No Nay Never filly is training well and could be the one for a dynamic layoff outfit. Jose Ortiz will be in the silks.

#7 SECRET MESSAGE (8-1) -- One of two for Motion, the daughter of Hat Trick makes her seasonal bow in the Mint Julep. Kentucky-bred bagged the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine last season, and her chances improve if there is some give in the lawn.

#8 ALTEA (12-1) -- French-bred 5-year-old has missed by a nose and a neck from a pair of black-type attempts this season. Brown charge owns just two lifetime tallies, so her inclusion will be limited to the vertical exotics, however.

#9 VARENKA (12-1) -- Upset contender has displayed good ability during her first two seasons, and she seems poised to break out at 4. Well-bred Ghostzapper filly was an even fifth behind a soft pace in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) in her 2019 finale, and she will receive more honest fractions to rally into on Saturday.

#10 HANALEI MOON (20-1) --  Stakes heroine went unplaced in her two recent graded stakes outings, and she is hard to back in a field of this quality under Gaffalione.

#11 ZOFELLE (20-1) -- Zoffany filly from the Walsh barn was runner-up in the recent Sand Springs at Gulfstream. Consistent lass always fires, and a forward move could find her in the hunt for a placing inside the final furlong. Corey Lanerie has the assignment.

#12 COCO CHANNEL (50-1) -- Outsider has never won on turf, and she has failed to hit the board in six of her last seven tries overall. She would be a shocker.

#13 ELIZABETH WAY (20-1) -- Attfield trainee has impressed since coming stateside, with a pair of victories and a nice third in the Orchid (G3) in her latest venture. Frankel filly comes in fresh with strong recent morning drills, but the cutback in distance is a major concern today.

#14 MITCHELL ROAD (10-1) -- Half-sister to Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Country House makes a lot of sense in the field for Mott at a nice number. English Channel mare has stayed in fine form dating back to last campaign, and she could sit a dream voyage forcing the pace from the break on Saturday. Joe Talamo will be in the stirrups.

Mint Julep Wagers

  • $10 Win and Place: #9 Varenka ($20)
  • $3 Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,6,14 ($18)

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