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Homeracing

How to bet the Pegasus World Cup

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

January 28th, 2017

The Pegasus World Cup is one of those races—like the Kentucky Derby or Arlington Million—that you have to have a top pick to win. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs, click here; for all handicapping reports, click the image at left.

It’s the world’s richest race with a $12-million purse and a rematch of the top two finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Take a stand.

And I’m standing with Longines World’s Best Racehorse Arrogate who already bettered Horse of the Year California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and showed in the Travers that he’s capable of an even better performance whereas California’s Chrome’s best (which is world-class) wasn’t good enough to beat Arrogate.

All that said, I won’t be going all in on Arrogate, as I think there’s just too great a chance that California Chrome wins this race.

So how do you bet the Pegasus World Cup? Well, the first step for me is to look at the win odds. If both California Chrome and Arrogate are 7-to-5 or greater then I would bet both to win and take the +20% profit if one of them wins. That’s fair value if you think there is an 80% chance that one of them wins, and I’d peg that number at closer to 90%. I.e., you’re getting $2.40 on a perceived 1-to-10 shot.

Unfortunately, even though I can make the math work in my favor, I don’t think we’ll see these prices given the current antepost betting at the Wynn Las Vegas where California Chrome is 10-to-11 and Arrogate is even money. In Europe, that’s flipped with Arrogate the even money favorite and California Chrome at 5-to-4, but either way, it doesn’t look like we’re getting 7-to-5 on either of them let alone both.

Does this open an opportunity for a wager on someone else? A little bit.

I have a hard time getting excited about betting a horse to win in a race I think two horses have a combined better than 80% chance, but if the board is going to give me more than 20-to-1 on Nobile Bird then I’ll probably have to take it.

The key number to get to, though, is $500 because there is a $10,000 pool available to anyone who bets that amount on the Pegasus only (win, place, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, & super high 5 bets are eligible). If I can’t bet $250 to win on both California Chrome and Arrogate at 7-to-5 then I’ll look to bet $500 to place on Arrogate if he has less than 40% of that pool.

My final option would be to play the Super High 5 given that you’re still dealing with a 10-horse trifecta for 3rd, 4th, and 5th even if you give the exacta to Arrogate and California Chrome.

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