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Homeracing

How to bet the Pick 5 carryover on Monday at Meadowlands

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 17th, 2016

I'm not a huge fan of shoehorning a single into a multi-race sequence just to play it, but given the $48,106 Pick 5 carryover today at Meadowlands and just 15% takeout on new money I'm OK with gambling a little bit. 

The timing of the carryover is funny considering it comes after I tweeted this about more favorites winning versus last year

That has since dropped to 37% with the rash of longshots that have led to today's double carryover in the Pick 5 (see chart at bottom). Even with the pot sweetener, I'll tread lightly in the Pick 5, using only my As for what amounts to a $45 win bet on #8 in race 3 (leg 2 of the Pick 5)

The 15% takeout on all bets allows us to play a little more liberally in the other Pick N wagers. There are rolling doubles and Pick 3s and a Pick 4 that starts with race 3.

So what do we like about #8 Supersecret in race 3? Five-pound bug Ashley Castrenze retaining the mount for trainer Mark Reid second-off the trainer change intrigues, and while speed has done well in turf sprints so far, there's a lot of it here, and this one figures to get the outside stalking trip. If Supersecret doesn't mind the overland route, he should get a clear first run on the pacesetters. That's a big "if" on a favorite, but with #3 Red Creme figuring to take more money, I'll gamble on the horse with consistent Speed Rating as good as any in the field and a lifetime best two back.

If you love non-Pick 6 carryovers, then the Meadowlands isn't your only action to start the week, as there is a $9,885 Pick 5 carryover tonight at Mountaineer, a $2,392 Pick 5 carryover tomorrow at Fort Erie, and a $4,418 Pick 4 carryover Wednesday at Hawthorne.

MEADOWLANDS AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 6.98 - 1
Favorite Win%: 37%, Favorite Itm%: 76%
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 114.81
Daily Double 117.27
Trifecta 1,076.14
Pick 3 1,349.12
Superfecta 4,640.79
Pick 4 3,373.67
Pick 5 22,592.77
Pick 6 Jackpot 29,610.60
TRACK BIAS MEET(09/28 - 10/15)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
Turf Sprint 18 61% E Rail  
Turf Routes 36 25% P Rail/Ins  
 
Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Ness Jamie 6 3 1 1 4.45 2 24%
Thompson J. Willard 6 3 2 0 4.82 3 12%
Pierce, Jr. Joseph H. 3 2 0 0 7.20 0 16%
Servis Jason 4 2 1 0 1.53 1 24%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Lopez Paco 12 4 2 3 1.83 3 21%

 

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