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Homeracing

How to bet the Pick 5 carryover on Tuesday, July 12, at Finger Lakes

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

July 12th, 2016

If at first you don't succeed: try, try again is how the saying goes, but we're actually at try try try again after failing to succeed with recent carryovers at Churchill, Fort Erie, and Finger Lakes.

But at least with racing "it only takes one" and the Pick 5 carryover today at Finger Lakes is certainly worth a try considering the $10,053 carryover.

One issue is there are less than 7 wagering interests per race on average with some imposing favorites judging by the morning lines. I see the bookend races (5 & 9) as the most challenging with legs 2 & 3 (races 6-7) as the ones with my strongest opinion.

Four of the five races are sprints and the other race is a two-turn mile, but distance doesn't matter at Finger Lakes so much as speed, speed, speed, as 75%-80% of the winners at the track have been "E" or "E/P" types on the Brisnet.com Past Performances. That's not to say off-the-pace types can't win, but it is the type of stat I like to use to give me confidence in a potential single or in races I want to narow, and that's the case with race 6, leg 2 where #2 Tricked Out Tux is the lone "E" type in a field of seven.

Tricked Out Tux is the shortest morning line price, so I probably won't be alone in singling him, but maybe we can beat some favorites elsewhere, including in race 7, leg 3 where 8-to-5 morning line favorite Make Your Point (#1) is certainly formidable from the rail, but #5 Cubicle Queen looks quicker from the gate and is a must use as an "E" type with the top Prime Power rating.

The biggest scratch of the sequence is in the last leg where #6 Justenuffkick is out. She was 5-to-2 on the morning line despite being the most likely winner in the whole sequence, and I'd have gladly bet her at even money. That makes Spellchick the most likely winner now, but it's no gimme especially as firster Space On the Couch (#7) intrigues given the top trainer-jockey combo and a dam who already has produced a runner who won early.

Good luck to those playing. If we succeed we'll be looking to parlay our winnings into the $20,606 Pick 4 carryover Wednesday night at Assiniboia. And if we don't succeed then we'll be back, anywya, to try try try try again.

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