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Homeracing

How to bet the Preakness Stakes if you like Justify to lose

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TwinSpires Staff

May 17th, 2018

Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up and Preakness Stakes (G1) contender Good Magic (c) Jim McCue/Maryland Jockey Club

by Scott Shapiro

Earlier I wrote a piece on “How to Bet the Preakness Stakes if you think Justify will win.

Most handicappers have the undefeated Kentucky Derby (G1) winner as a stand out in Saturday’s featured event at Pimlico, but there are also horseplayers that will hope he regresses off the taxing three-month campaign and fails to make it a perfect five-for-five to start his career.

On paper it is tough to make a case against Justify running big against this group, but if he does not win the 2018 Preakness there is reason to believe something went wrong. Therefore, if I am against him on top I will also leave him out of the second slot in vertical wagers.

Good Magic (#5) got a perfect trip and ran big in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago for trainer Chad Brown. The horseman must be confident that his colt came out of the race well to bring him back to take on Justify on Saturday. If both horses run their best race it is hard to see Good Magic “turning the tables,” but if Justify fails to fire or Good Magic gets back to his career best 105 BRIS Speed rating, he could earn his trainer a second straight win in the Preakness.

If I am wagering against Justify winning the 143rd Preakness Stakes, I am going to play exactas and trifectas that require Good Magic to run first or second. I will then use Lone Sailor (#2), Diamond King (#4) and, my favorite of the price plays, Bravazo (#8) with the two-year-old champ and hope that Justify not only gets beat but does so by at least two runners.

Here are my suggested wagers:

$5 Exacta Wheel: 5 with 2+4+8 = $15

$3 Exacta Wheel: 2+4+8 with 5 = $9

$1 Trifecta Wheel: 5 with 2+4+8 with ALL = $18

$1 Trifecta Wheel: 2+4+8 with 5 with ALL  = $18

Total Budget = $60

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