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Homeracing

How to bet the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie on TwinSpires.com

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

July 26th, 2016

It’s the biggest race of the year for Fort Erie, and there are wagering opportunities to match on the 9-race card that begins at 4:15 p.m. EDT.

In addition to the $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes (8th race, 7:38p ET), there is a Pick 5 carryover on the last five races (5-9), and TwinSpires.com is offering 20x points if you cash for at least $20 throughout the card (there are similar promotions for Tuesday at Indiana Grand and Hoosier, Wednesday at Louisiana Downs, and Thursday at Arlington International Racecourse).

We’ll focus on the Prince of Wales Stakes because I’m hoping the morning line is correct and that Sir Dudley Digges is favored, but even if he’s not the Queen’s Plate winner should take enough money to make Ami’s Gizmo playable in this spot.

Sir Dudley Digges was 15.95-to-1 in the Queen’s Plate with Ami’s Gizmo the 2.55-to-1 favorite in the field of 13, so I’m dubious that even the marquee win will push Sir Dudley Digges to favoritism, but that combined with owner Ken Ramsey’s penchant to bet should keep Ami’s Gizmo north of 9-to-5, and I’m a buyer at 2-to-1 or better for sure.

Ami’s Gizmo is just consistently faster than these, having run at least a 90 Brisnet.com Speed Rating in five of his seven starts. The rest of the field combined has only hit the 90 mark four times with Sir Dudley Digges the only to do it last out when registering a 90 for his Queen’s Plate win.

Ami’s Gizmo is one of four in here trying dirt for the first time, and that’s a minor concern considering there is a colt from Todd Pletcher’s barn who is two-for-four on dirt and is by Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini. The Prince of Wales is at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles. Ami’s Gizmo has worked at Fort Erie between the Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales.

The other alternatives are on the inside: #2 All On Red and #1 Leavem In Malibu. Of the horses with no dirt experience, Leavem In Malibu has the most interesting pedigree being by Malibu Moon out of a Danzig mare. He needs to improve to contend, but the surface and distance variables give him the most license to do so. All On Red broke his maiden on dirt and was running at the end of the Queen’s Plate.

WAGERING STRATEGY:

Win bet on Ami’s Gizmo at 2-to-1 or better. Place and show bets if it looks like he’ll have less than 25% of either of those pools.

Fair odds on other contenders mentioned: Sir Dudley Digges (4-to-1), All On Red (5-to-1), Battery (6-to-1), Leavem In Malibu (7-to-1).

Exactas:

4 with 1, 2, 6

1, 2, 6 with 4, 8

1, 2, 4, 6 boxed

Good luck!

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