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Homeracing

How To Bet the Queen’s Plate 2017 Superfecta

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

July 2nd, 2017

Those who follow my near-daily wagering exploits know that I’m a big fan of multi-race wagers, which makes Sunday’s 13-race Queen’s Plate day card at Woodbine a must play for me give the guaranteed pools in the Pick 5s (races 2 & 6) and Pick 4s (races 4 & 10).

For my full-card analysis and multi-race wagering strategy, CLICK HERE. For FREE Queen’s Plate Ultimate PPs, CLICK HERE.

I will go beyond horizontal wagering today and absolutely be playing the superfecta in the 13-horse Queen’s Plate, which features an underlaid favorite and some absolute bombs that I’m willing to oppose from even the top four spots in the superfecta on most tickets.

I.e., I’m looking to beat #3 Holy Helena on top AND beat the longshots underneath, as I think a lot of tickets will disproportionately use the favorite(s) on top and “ALL” in the 4th and 3rd spots.

My top pick is Guy Caballero, not because I think he is the most likely winner, but I think he’s the biggest overlay in the field. I have his fair odds at 6-to-1 and expect him to be twice that price.

He’s unlikely to offer wagering value on the win end, but Channel Maker is a must use as the most likely winner in the race for me. Malibu Secret is also among the bigger overlays.

One horse I’m mostly against on the win who will take money is Aurora Way. A race like this in 2nd career start stretching out to 1 ¼ miles from 1 1/16 miles is just not a spot to take a 3rd-5th choice in a 13-horse field.

Here’s how I’ll play the superfecta:

1 with 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($50.40)

2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 with 1 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($50.40)

2 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($78.40)

1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 with 2 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($78.40)

1, 2 with 1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($22.40)

1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($22.40)

1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2 ($22.40)

3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2 with 1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($22.40)

3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2 with 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 2 ($22.40)

TOTAL BET: $369.60

 

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