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Homeracing

How to Bet the Queen’s Plate

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

June 28th, 2018

A huge field of 16 sophomores will go postward for the 158th running of the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine on Saturday. The first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown has attracted some fine runners, including a pair of fantastic fillies, and promises to be a most exciting event.

#1 BOYHOOD DREAM (30-1) – Longshot from the Mike Maker barn was no factor in the Plate Trial and will need big improvement to factor from the rail.

#2 COOLER MIKE (30-1) – Consistent sort has run a pair of good ones off the bench and has some intrigue. Nicholas Nosowenko pupil looked the part in his first with blinkers last time and gets exotics attention.

#3 INGE (30-1) – Likely pacesetter stopped in the lane of the Marine (G3) and rates as a serious question mark at the distance. Gelding is likely to face serious early pressure and would be a surprise.

#4 STRIKE ME DOWN (10-1) – Graham Motion charge broke his maiden locally two back and is clearly a talented sort. Well-bred son of Tapit could peak third off the layoff and Jose Ortiz coming in to ride is a big positive.

#5 SILENT POET (30-1) – Interesting longshot comes off a visually impressive allowance tally on the lawn and will go two turns for the initial time. Nicholas Gonzalez trainee has run well in every lifetime outing and rates a chance if the distance is to his liking.

#6 REAL DUDE (50-1) – Maiden is bred to be a good one but looks well behind the main contenders in the field.

#7 DIXIE MOON (4-1) – Classy lass won a stakes over the oval in a lone prior encounter against the boys and is three-for-four on the Tapeta. Catherine Day-Phillips starlet was game Woodbine Oaks winner last out and the daughter of Curlin must be considered a major player. Top jock Eurico da Silva will be in the stirrups.

#8 ALTERNATIVE ROUTE (20-1) – Al Stall shipper took the Rushaway in the spring in a lone prior race on the All-Weather. Tiznow colt needs to get faster but this barn can never be ignored.

#9 SAY THE WORD (20-1) – Gelded son of More Than Ready was an allowance third last time in a decent prep run for today. Motion pupil has yet to try stakes foes and was no factor in a previous effort on this strip, though.

#10 TELEKINESIS (5-2) – Morning-line choice made good in the Plate Trial in his Woodbine debut. Mark Casse charge is bred to love the distance and has impressed me a good deal in each of his last outings. $470,000 weanling purchase looks all set with Patrick Husbands in the silks.

#11 WONDER GADOT (3-1) – Classy filly just missed in the Woodbine Oaks most recently, which followed a superb try when second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Versatile daughter of Medaglia d’Oro gives Casse another strong option and she will be equipped with blinkers for the first time today. Regular rider John Velazquez will be in the controls again.

#12 PAWNBROKER (50-1) – Maiden was an even fourth in a sprint at first asking and would be a total shock.

#13 MARRIAGE COUNSELOR (50-1) – Son of Overanalyze beat maiden claiming foes on the turf last time out. I can’t see him making an impact here.

#14 NEEPAWA (15-1) – Stakes-placed Scat Daddy colt closed well in a recent allowance effort and could be dangerous from off the pace. Casse trainee will get a healthy pace to run into with Florent Geroux coming to ride.

#15 AHEADBYACENTURY (15-1) – Stakes victor is winless from three tries in 2018 and doesn’t have the best current form.

#16 ROSE’S VISION (12-1) – Plate Trial runner-up comes off a lifetime best and could be entering a peak form cycle. Stuart Simon trainee drew widest of all, though. He will have to be much the best from this slot with Javier Castellano in the saddle.

Analysis

This race will have honest and contested fractions for the distance. At least half of the field prefers to be forwardly placed and could get bunched up early.

It’s not easy to side with the favorite in such a big field. But I simply think Telekinesis is just scratching the surface of how good he will become and he gets top billing. Ghostzapper colt is fast, versatile and bred to thrive at 10 furlongs.

While Telekinesis has always been forwardly placed in each race to date, he is a handy one and will give Husbands every chance to be placed in the right spot throughout.

Wager

$50 Win 10 = $50

$1 Trifecta Key: 10 with 4,5,7,11,14,16 = $30

$1 Trifecta Part-Wheel (bigger budgets): 10 with 4,5,7,11,14,16 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,14,16 = $54

$3 Exacta Part-Wheel: 4,5,7,11,14,16 with 10 = $18

Good luck on the Queen’s Plate!

Brisnet.com has the best information for Saturday’s Queen Plate program including John Mucciolo’s Daily Selections for every race

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