How to bet the Raven Run Stakes

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

October 15th, 2020

A fantastic field of 10 sophomore fillies will vie in Saturday’s ultra-competitive $200,000 Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland.

Raven Run Analysis

The pace will be strong, with #2 Four Graces and #5 Venetian Harbor showing the most interest from the outset. That duo will be tracked by #4 Finite, #6 Reagan’s Edge, #9 Grand Cru Classe, and #10 Secret Keeper. I expect the winner to come from the second or third flight early on.

Raven Run Contenders

#1 NEVER FORGET (20-1) -- Eight Belles (G2) third has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers two back for Oliver. War Front filly gets a tricky rail draw, and she will also need a big step forward to challenge this cast late at big odds.

#2 FOUR GRACES (5-2) -- Asmussen pupil had a three-race win streak snapped when second in the recent Eight Belles (G2) at Churchill Downs. Classy lass was a dominant winner of the Beaumont (G3) on the course two prior, and she is training swiftly in preparation of her second Keeneland appearance. Regular rider Leparoux has the call.

#3 SECONDARY MARKET (12-1) -- Chad Brown trainee finished fourth in her graded debut at Saratoga last time out. Talented Into Mischief filly is lightly raced with room for improvement, and she could peak third time back from the long absence, as well. Tyler Gaffalione has the assignment.

#4 FINITE (8-1) -- Second from the Asmussen shedrow goes turf to dirt and has the look of a sleeper at a price. Chestnut daughter of Munnings is a dual Grade 2 queen who should find the distance to her liking in her local bow. Tactical Kentucky-bred will be guided by Santana.

#5 VENETIAN HARBOR (7-5) -- Morning-line choice has never run a bad one for Baltas. Grade 2 vixen has finished runner-up in both the Ashland (G1) and Test (G1) in her previous two affairs, and she rates a huge chance with her best performance on Saturday. Manny Franco picks up the mount and will be sending the bay from the break.

#6 REAGAN’S EDGE (8-1) -- Consistently good contender from the DeVaux barn comes off back-to-back second-place finishes in the Prioress (G2) and Victory Ride (G3). Top-three player has hit the board in each career try to date, and she shows a recent bullet morning move leading up to her Keeneland debut.

#7 TONALIST’S SHAPE (12-1) -- Davona Dale (G2) starlet is yet another win threat in a field full of them. Joseph pupil has been off form in three of her last four, but the daughter of Tonalist has a lot of back class and could surprise if she runs to her recent workouts. Rafael Bejarano will be in the stirrups.

#8 FAIR MAIDEN (15-1) -- Dangerous contender at a price was particularly sharp in defeating allowance runners off the shelf last time for Harty. Grade 1-placed stakes vixen aced her dirt debut at Churchill Downs most recently, and any kind of improvement second time back could find her in a good spot inside the final furlong beneath Lanerie.

#9 GRAND CRU CLASSE (12-1) -- Unbeaten filly from the Mott barn cuts back in trip for her graded bow following two route outings. Daughter of Bernardini will need to get faster to challenge the top players in the affair, but she is unblemished and can’t be ignored with Garcia taking the reins.

#10 SECRET KEEPER (12-1) -- Upset pick has done little wrong in the Golden State to this stage of her development for Sise. Into Mischief homebred gets a tricky outside post slot in the Raven Run, but she is quite versatile and could get a good set up with a clean break under Hernandez. I expect the bay to stalk the tempo to the top of the lane before edging clear late.

Raven Run Wagers

  • $15 Win and Place: #10 Secret Keeper ($30)
  • $1 Exacta Box: 2,4,5,7,8,10 ($30)