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Homeracing

How to Bet the Torrey Pines

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TwinSpires Staff

August 27th, 2016

by Scott Shapiro

The penultimate Sunday of the Del Mar summer meeting is upon us and the feature is the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes. The one-mile event for three-year-old fillies is conducted over the main track and is headlined by undefeated California-bred #1 Enola Gray.

Phil D’Amato conditioned Enola Gray has been extremely impressive thus far in three lifetime starts, including a dominant win over this racetrack at one turn last month in the Fleet Treat against fellow state-breds. The Grazen filly looks fastest on paper, but there are a few question marks she has to answer on Sunday.

Firstly, Enola Gray has yet to face open company. All three of her victories have come against much weaker Cal-bred company. She faces a much more legitimate group on Sunday in the Torrey Pines.

Additionally, she goes two turns for just the second time and while she was able to hit the wire first in that May 28th event at Santa Anita Park, it was by far the least impressive of her three wins thus far.

Finally, Enola Gray draws the rail in a race that has other front running fillies to her outside. #2 Uptown Twirl, #4 Nine Point Nine and #7 Bellamentary all have early speed and could make it a challenging trip for the undefeated Nick Alexander filly.

All this being said, Enola Gray could be that good and does tower over this field on figures.

Given the probable contentious pace in the Torrey Pines, I am going to attack this race by keying a horse that should be the recipient of a good trip from off the pace underneath in the exotics.

#3 Kay Kay returns off a two-month layoff for trainer Vladimir Cerin. This Pleasantly Perfect filly has only been off the board in one of her six career starts and that was over a sloppy track in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. I can excuse that effort. I do not think Kay Kay is good enough to pass them all, but I do think she will pass the majority of the field late and has a huge shot to hit the board at a decent price.

I will use Enola Gray on top in the exotic plays, but others as well. #2 Uptown Twirl #6 Dreamarcher, #7 Bellamentary and #8 Belvoir Bay have to put forth career best efforts to capture their first graded stakes victory, but the value is there to use them as well.

Here is my exotic wagering strategy for the Torrey Pines:

$20 Exacta 1-3 ($20)

$4 Exacta 2+6+7+8 with 3 ($16)

$1 Trifecta Wheel 1+2+6+7+8 with 3 with ALL ($35)

$1 Trifecta Wheel 1+2+6+7+8 with ALL with 3 ($35)

In terms of horizontal wagers, I will look to Daily Doubles that commence in Race 7.

#3 Jeweled was bet like she already won the race in her debut against American Cleopatra, but failed to fire. I was not enthused at all about how this Sidney’s Candy filly looked in the paddock before the race, so I am against her in her second career start.

I like the looks of #6 My Alchemist for trainer Richard Baltas. This Mineshaft filly showed speed and faded in her debut against the highly regarded Noted and Quoted. Kent Desormeaux takes over for Chantal Sutherland on Sunday, which is certainly an upgrade. I expect significant improvement and am willing to gamble that she can best this group of young ladies.

Here are my Daily Double plays:

$20 Double 6 with 1+7 = $40

$5 Double 6 with 2+6+8 = $15

The Torrey Pines is the eighth race on Del Mar’s 10-race Sunday card and is scheduled to go to the post at 5:30 PM Local time. 

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