How to bet Turfway Park 2016 opening night

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Ed DeRosa

November 30th, 2016

Turfway Park kicks off its 2016-2017 meeting on Wednesday, November 30, with a 9-race card. We've already discussed some general ideas when handicapping the Polytrack in Northern Kentucky, so this blog will focus specifically on the opening night card with a $0.50 Pick 5 on races 1-5, $0.50 Pick 4s on races 2-5 and 6-9, and rolling $0.50 Pick 3s and $1 doubles.

As you can see from the #EdsPicks ABC grid below, we have some strong ideas in the middle part of the card (lone "A" selections in races 3, 4, & 5) and a lesser handle on other races, so we'll definitely focus our attention on getting 2 of our 3 "lone 'A'" picks home in the early multis.

In race 3, #12 Ventry Bay is certainly a likely winner, which is not a stretch considering his 6-to-5 morning line, but post 12 could pose an issue. Top alternatives include #3 Makeamericagreat, who can show speed, and #9 South Upper, who has breeding for this type of trip.

In race 4, #3 Granddaughter is not only a lone "A" in that race but also the most likely winner on the card for me, and the filly I'll single the most strongly in all multis. She has speed, gets a better draw than recent races, and the drop and pop is a powerful angle for a trainer who knows how to win here. Sire Flatter adds to the confidence even though this is her Polytrack debut.

In race 5, #2 Cotton Club Cutie is consistently the fastest in this group, though there is a lot of speed including from just to her inside with #1 Nevrmesswithrichie. Morning line favorite #6 Three D Printer fits, but Polytrack debut is a mild concern as potential favorite.

Full ABC grid is below with each race's top pick noted in the "TP:" column.