ADVERTISEMENT

Homeracing

How To Make Money Betting Florida Derby day at Gulfstream Park

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

April 2nd, 2016

It's fun to have a strong opinion on who will win the showdown between Nyquist and Mohaymen in the Florida Derby, and for that purpose I have picked Nyquist "ON TOP", but the fact of the matter is I'm not going to let Mohaymen beat me out of the Pick 5 after (I hope) a few longshots come in races 10-13.

I'm also not much of a vertical bettor, but I do think the Florida Derby offers some opportunity in that regard because far too many bettors will use the "ALL" key in the 2nd and 3rd spots hoping for chaos, and while I'm not fundamentally against the "ALL" key, I don't think this is the spot for it.

I give either Nyquist or Mohaymen winning a 90% chance, which doesn't leave a lot of room to back other competitors. If I am alive to the favorites for decent payouts in a multi-race wager then I would consider a hedge on any of #2 Fellowship, #3 Majesto, or #7 Takeittotheedge but only at 30-to-1 or higher, which doesn't seem likely based on their morning lines.

However, that trio also figures most likely to hit the board, so narrowing on them of the remaining eight horses could produce an overlaid payout in the vertical exotics because of all the dead money spreading on horses like #1 Sawyers Mickey or #5 Copingaway, who I literally give zero chance to win and only a slightly better chance to cash a show ticket.

One cool thing about Brisnet.com's ALLWAYS software is that it allows you to remove horses and handicap the race as if they're nonrunners. This, of course, is most ideal for scratches, but I use it when there are big favorites, too, to really get a gauge on how strong the favorite is and who might win "the race for place" (or in this case show?). Scratching the two favorites yields Takeittotheedge as the most likely winner. Does that mean he'll "win" the race for third? No, but it does give me confidence in his talent over some others who will take money. Fellowship and Majesto followed, so I'll use them as well underneath the two favorites and hope the tri pays 10-to-1 and press on Takeittotheedge.

ABC grid for the whole 14-race card is below. My most likely winners would be any of the "lone As": #11 in race 1, #5 in race 5 (Valid!), and #5 in race 10. Good luck today!

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Loading...