How to Make Money with Scully on Breeders' Cup Saturday
Nine Breeders’ Cup races are on tap Saturday and I’ll pick my spots earlier on the card, with the Turf and Classic featuring prohibitive favorites in Golden Horn and American Pharoah who will be difficult to beat.
Here are some wagering thoughts:
Songbird (#10) has been a beast winning her first three starts in convincing fashion but the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Medaglia d’Oro drew a tough post, widest of all in a 10-horse field. She could still prove good enough under Mike Smith, the leading rider by wins in the Breeders’ Cup, but I’m not expecting Songbird’s rivals to allow her an uncontested early advantage – they’ll be trying to carry the speedy lass wide into the clubhouse turn.
Land Over Sea (#1) is an upset pick – she had little chance vs a loose-on-the-lead Songbird in the Chandelier (G1) last time but finished up strongly in a runner-up effort, nearly 10 lengths clear of third. The Bellamy Road filly loves a route of ground, with Doug O’Neill electing to run her on turf the second time out in order to go two turns, and Land Over Sea figures to sit a good ground-saving trip just behind the early leaders.
I’ll key Land Over Sea and Songbird in multi-race wagers.
TwinSpires Turf Sprint
Ready for Rye (#12) could be bet down from his 10-1 morning line but won’t be too short in a contentious full field. The 3-year-old shows a pair of terrific efforts sprinting on turf, including a win at the 5 ½-furlong distance, and the City Zip gelding possesses the tactical speed to ensure a good trip from his outside post. I like his present form for Tom Albertrani.
Pure Sensation (#1) and Green Mask (#7) are my back-up selections.
TwinSpires Filly & Mare Sprint
Have a solid opinion here with the speed. Stonetastic (#8) was bet down to 3-1 in last year’s race but was perhaps a little over the top by the time she got to Santa Anita. That’s not the case this year, with the 4-year-old making a belated return to the races this year and recording a pair of encouraging performances to build upon. I’m expecting her to flash to the front with a hot-riding Paco Lopez and lead wire to wire.
Cavorting (#14) rates the best chance among late runners and Artemis Agrotera (#5) is a talented 7-furlong specialist who could outperform her odds if ready to go off the 12-month layoff – I’ll include both in some multi-race tickets and underneath in vertical exotics.
Filly & Mare Turf
Tough to go against Legatissimo (#3) in this spot – the 3-year-old filly has really come on her last couple of outings and has the class to handle these foes as the favorite.
Expecting a wicked pace duel up front that sets up for a horse with a late kick. Wild Dude (#8) has found his best form at the right time of the year for Hollendorfer, registering top BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings in his last three outings, and the 6-furlong specialist (6-4-0-2) should receive a perfect set-up.
Limousine Liberal (#4) is an intriguing longshot with a big upside; he could outperform expectations and I’ll include him in multi-race wagers along with the speedy Runhappy (#5) and Private Zone (#13); and late runners Stallwalkin’ Dude (#3) and Salutos Amigos (#10).
The Mile came up tough, with seven European-based horses in the line-up, and the Andre Fabre-trained duo of Make Believe (#3) and Esoterique (#9) look very formidable. I’ll also include the rapidly-improving French-based sophomore filly Impassable (#5), who figures to offer nice value.
Exaggerator (#9) was arguably a race short finishing a commendable second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on Keeneland’s opening weekend and I’m the promising son of Curlin to move forward off that effort. He rates top billing.
Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader (#3) can’t be eliminated from win consideration and I’ll also spread with Unbridled Outlaw (#4) in the multi-race wagers.
Best of luck on Breeders’ Cup Saturday!