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Homeracing

How to use the toteboard to bet the Pick 5 carryover at Mountaineer

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

September 21st, 2015

There is a $21,618 carryover in the Pick 5 tonight at Mountaineer, and it is a challenging sequence that requires the bettor to balance how much to use likely winners with big longshots who aren’t impossible.

Take the first race in the sequence (race 5 on the night) for example. It’s a $5,000 maiden claimer for West Virginia breds, and the Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs tell us that favorites have won seven of nine races at this class, but as you can imagine at this level any horse has questions surrounding it. Thankfully, as the first race in the sequence, we’ll see the board before the race and can elevate the favorite accordingly.

So in leg 1, race 5, I’m using the favorite as an “A”, any horse in the top tier of those being bet as a “B”, and 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 on a third ticket. If the 4 or 7 win then so be it, but I can’t in good conscience put any money on either of those two horses to win a race.

Leg 2 race 6 is more binary, as either #3 Red Cloud Trail is the winner or he’s not, and he might actually offer some “value” because the entry will take more money than it should. If the 3 doesn’t win I’ll eschew the other top choices (1 & 8) and try to get a price in there with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

In leg 3 race 7 I’m going to try to beat the favored entry here with either #6 Win Castle or #7 Blade Unbridled—both of whom could get the jump on the entry with the former setting the pace and the latter getting first run. #4 Walk A Mile and #8 Uncle Ang are attractive at their prices to be live to if the favorites win the first two legs.

I’m three deep in leg 4 race 8, but it’s my most confident leg, as I really think #3 Harrier Hill, #5 Tin Cat, and #6 Dimeonthelime cover this race, as we’re once again trying to beat a low-priced entry.

Closing things out #7 Brawler and #10 Conquestor look like the right ones in leg 5 race 9. Conquestor ships in for Kenny Jansen who picks up 16% jock Gabriel Lagunes, and he’s the only horse along with the aforementioned favored Brawler with two of his last three racing topping 70 on the Brisnet.com Speed Rating scale.

So how do you bet these picks? Here’s my approach.

1* with 3 with 4, 6, 7, 8 with 3, 5, 6 with 7, 10 ($12)

1* with 3 with 6, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 with 7, 10 ($14)

1* with 3 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 6 with 1, 2, 4, 7, 10 ($15)

1* with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 6 with 7, 10 ($36)

1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8  with 3 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 6 with 7, 10 ($36)

1, 2, 8 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 6 with 7, 10 ($108)

*replace #1 with the favorite if #1 is not the post time favorite

This is $221 total wagered, but with the Pick 5 you don’t really need to hit it six times, so you could eliminate some redundancies on the ticket.

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