Homeracing

How to win money on the 2017 Belmont Stakes card

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

June 10th, 2017

The big day is finally here, and not a moment too soon for me, as I'm looking forward to exorcising some demons not only from this Belmont Stakes week but also all of a Triple Crown season that has seen me post a dreadful ROI of -50% on my wagers since May 1 and an even-more-miserable ROI of -55% on Oaks, Derby, Black-Eyed Susan, Preakness and Belmont Stakes week days.

The good news is that as high as those percentages look, they're not an insurmountable, and a big day on the 13-race Belmont Stakes card could right the ship as we sail into the summer racing season.

As discussed on the How To Bet the Belmont Stakes podcast, successful preparation for these big days includes not only good opinions on the races but also good opinions on your opinions and wagering accordingly. You can’t bet every race or sequence the same way, so deciding where to lean is paramount.

I always ask myself, who the most likely winner on the card is, and who the most intriguing “A” horse at a price is.

The most likely winner is a #5, it’s just a matter of figuring which #5 is more likely to win! In race 3, the Brooklyn, #5 Tu Brutus moves way up with the scratch of Send It In. He has an advantage in many variables related to a tricky-distance race. In race 5, the Phipps, #5 is Songbird, who is easily the most accomplished horse on the card. The champion two- and three-year-old filly is making her four-year-old debut here and first start since suffering her first loss when second to Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, so the layoff is a question mark, but she is an imposing figure here.

It’s tough for me to come up with a Pick 5 ticket in which BOTH horses lose, but if you do and are right then you’ll win thousands.

The most intriguing “A” for me is #9 Conquest Enforcer in race 6 (the Jaipur). He is cutting back with a win at the distance and has numbers that are competitive with these.

I also really like #4 Gold for the King in race 7 (the Woody Stephens). He’ll be overlooked off the New York-bred races, but definitely fits with these, especially if things cook too much upfront with my top pick Recruiting Ready.

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