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Homeracing

How we're betting Delta Downs rolling double bonus

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 16th, 2015

Friday, October 16, is a big night if you like full fields and fun multi-race wagering opportunities, as Delta Downs opens its 2015-2016 meeting with an 11-race card featuring an average field size after scratches of 9.91 horses/race!

TwinSpires.com is getting in on the action by offering  a 10% bonus on rolling doubles every day of the meeting through December 31. Cash a double and receive 10% of the return back as a bonus. E.g., if the double pays $11.10 then you’ll receive that payout when the race is official plus an addition $1.11 within 96 hours of the race. Bonus is capped at $500 per person per day.

It’s a welcome spiff because the betting public is pretty smart when it comes to Delta Downs. I queried my ALL-Ways database for the last two meetings (October 2013-March 2015), and while Brisnet.com’s proprietary data is good at picking winners, it’s pretty short on winning plays.

My takeaway from this information is that in-form horses do well at Delta Downs, so you can use horses who look good with confidence, but you have to be judicious and not accept too short a price.

I have drawn up a traditional ABC grid for Friday’s opening night card and applied the following formula to rolling doubles: A with ABC, AB with AB, and ABC with A. So I could hit each double for $3. Assuming no more scratches, this plan would cost $493, and in order to show a profit playing TwinSpires rolling 10% double bonus would need to return $448.20.

As you can see, not every race has an “C”, “B”, or even “A” picks. There’s no need to bet horses “just because” you have room in a column. I’m not a big fan of moving horses around the grid because of budget. I’d rather just bet all my As than gerrymander an A to a B to fit some scheme and/or bankroll.

That’s not as big an issue here where we’re involved in a high-churn wager, but is something to keep in mind heading into Breeders’ Cup.

Earlier when I mentioned fun multi-race wagering opportunities, I also had The Meadowlands in mind, which continues it’s all-turf Monmouth meeting tonight with carryovers in both the Pick 5 and Pick 4. Some astounding prices have been coming in at this meeting, and even though I haven’t connected on a big one, it’s been a lot of fun playing knowing you could be in line for a big score, and my big score horse tonight is PORVOO (#9) in race 4.

She’s 20-to-1 on the morning line, and a quick glance of her PPs reveals why, but I see this as a slight class drop coming from New York, and she’s shown enough early foot that I think she’ll be in striking distance turning for home, and the way this meeting has gone that’s enough for me to want to be on board for a thrill at a big price.

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