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Homeracing

Improving Colts Embrace Goodtimes Final Field Without Division Stars; Others Convene In PA Sires Stakes Splits

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

June 12th, 2019

The letter (e) notes a Hambletonian-eligible horse. Three divisions of Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) are on tap June 14 at Philly, featuring some mighty contenders for the August classic. The first gig is worth $56,468, with a trio of eligible colts. Among those, Forecast (e) gets our call again. Three starts off the board is no bother to us, since John Butenschoen’s colt has had a few excuses in our opinions and is in a good spot on the rail to upset both of the other top contenders. Those two, Summit In Sight (e) and Goes Down Smooth, are the obvious contenders, making them the public choices. The second PASS split ($56,868) also offers a trio of eligible colts, though this is a field of seven. The top contender, however, is Kates Massive, a three-for-three steed this season with the biggest bankroll in the group. Our money is on Guaranteed (e), Linda Toscano’s colt that races with greater purpose here than the obvious favorite and should be improving this late in the “Trail.” Last week we were hot on Marseille (e) and scored a reasonable price on the Ake Svansstedt colt, one of six eligible colts in the third PASS event, worth $56,868. What may be great here is that Marseille may surrender favorite status to Osterc (e) and perhaps even wind up a third choice, giving the second position to White Tiger (e). We think Marseille is better than both and the others with Hambo hopes, including Klutzy (e) and Explosivebreakaway (e). GOODTIMES TROTTING Three colts never to line up for a shot at Hambletonian glory are involved in the 10-horse Goodtimes Final field at Woodbine/Mohawk (WoMo) on June 15. Three other colts, arguable the top three most likely to go to the elims and final, are missing from this $247,000 trot. The highest profiled glamour-boy trotter in the field is Swandre The Giant (e), who could not get the one more step forward needed to beat the improving Forbidden Trade (e) in one of the two June 7 eliminations. As well, finishing third in that split was Smart As Hill (e), who carved an impressive trip at 37-1 ahead of Super Schissel (e), the betting public’s second choice at 5-2. ”Swandre” meets those three again, as well as he faces Pilot Discretion (e), the other elim winner, a huge favorite who was never threatened by his toughest foe, Southwind Avenger (e). That one, the public’s second choice, finished as forecasted and ahead of three non-eligible colts, 19-1, 62-1 and 58-1, that also made the final field. The obvious missing trio consists of Greenshoe (e), Gimpanzee (e) and Green Manalushi (e). They loom as larger threats for Swandre than those in the Goodtimes Final and a two others also missing—Osterc (e) and Mr Vicktor (e)—must be respected as legitimate Hambletonian competition. Indeed, a full field. For the Goodtimes Final bettor, Swandre’s challenge is looked upon as a smart wager or a foolish one based upon the generic handicapping information above. It depends upon a bettor’s evaluation of the crowd’s opinion. Should the public strongly back the elimination winners, sending Swandre off as a third choice or worse, he will definitely deserve a bet at that price. It will be easy for the value-conscious bettors to pass on lower-than-justifiable prices for Pilot Discretion and/or Forbidden Trade. The four true outsiders, Southwind Avenger, Super Schissel, Smart As Hill and Only For Justice, will be weighed down with low chances that offer wins reserved for race circumstances beyond anyone’s control; and the trio of August absentees are off the wagering grid all together. Swandre The Giant, therefore, surfaces as the only opportunity to play or pass for price and purpose, as once again the calculating gambler is left to decide his or her action as the crowd turns. Follow Hambletonian Trail action from this blog on Twitter #Hambo19 and @FrankCotolo in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society.

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