Is Flintshire Vulnerable in the Breeders' Cup Turf?

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D.S. Williamson

October 21st, 2016

Up until Flintshire's loss in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, he was considered one of 2 possible singles on all Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets on Breeders' Cup Saturday. Flintshire looked unbeatable up until the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. But, then, the unbeatable Flintshire lost. Is Flintshire, like Tepin in the BC Mile, prone to an upset in the Breeders' Cup Turf? I think so. In fact, I don't expect Flintshire to win on Breeders' Cup Saturday. I think one of the 5 horses I list below is going to beat him.

Highland Reel (3-1)

Arguably the best turf trainer in the world is Aidan O'Brien. He might have up to 3 horses in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf. One of the horses that O'Brien is likely to run in the BC Turf is Highland Reel. The son of Galileo goes into this race off of a second place finish in the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, perhaps the most prestigious grass race in the world. Highland Reel is a gigantic horse and is used to fighting against the best of the best on the lawn. He'll be on his game come the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf.

Found (3-1)

Also trained by O'Brien, last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Champion has been in excellent form all year long. She didn't put everything together for a major win until the Arc where she beat Highland Reel and arguably the top grass horse in the world at the time, Postponed. She's as classy and as tough as they come. It's going to be difficult for any horse, even Flintshire, to deny Found the wire. O'Brien's superstar filly should be difficult to beat in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf.

Ectot (8-1)

This classy 5-year-old is the horse that upset Flintshire in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. It took Ectot a while to get it going. As late as Sept. 4 he had finished second to Street Fashion in an allowance race at Saratoga. The thing to realize about Ectot is that once jockey Jose Ortiz pushed the button on him in the Joe Hirsch, he took off. Todd Pletcher trains. A step back in the BC Turf shouldn't be expected.

Erupt (8-1)

Erupt's best race in 2016 was finishing second in the Group 1 Grand Prix de St-Cloud in July. Erupt ran very well to finish third in his last, the Group 2 Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville. Is that a sign that Erupt's form has turned back around?  Will the son of Dubawi do enough to challenge the top horses in the Breeders' Cup Turf on Nov. 5? Maybe.

Ashleyluvssugar (16-1)

The Santa Anita turf course is different than anything Found, Highland Reel, Ectot, Erupt, or even Flintshire has ever seen. That could give an advantage to Ashleyluvssugar who goes into this off of two Grade 2 wins including a victory in the John Henry Turf Championship Stakes on Oct. 2 at Santa Anita Park. Since he's a Cal bred, Ashleyluvssugar should offer excellent odds on Nov. 5. The horse for course angle could be in full display in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf.

These are the 5 in the 2016 BC Turf that I'm thinking of building exotic wagers around. If you can think of any others, please let me know by leaving comments below.

*Odds shown are a morning line forecast on 10/21/2016 and are for informational purposes only.