Just How Powerful is American Pharoah's 14-point Prime Power Advantage?
In 74 fast dirt route graded stakes since 2006 at Saratoga, there have been 7 horses with a PRIME POWER advantage greater than ten. Six of the seven won for an ROI of +16%, and all seven hit the board. Of the 25 with at least a 5-point advantage, 14 (56%) won for a +4% ROI (with 21 [84%] finishing in the money).
If we combine the 10-point PRIME POWER advantage with American Pharoah’s 2-point last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating advantage and 3-point Class Rating advantage, we find that in non-maiden dirt routes at Saratoga those horses win 71% of the time and have never finished out of the money.
All that is not to say that American Pharoah is a good win bet at 1- or 2-to-5. The first example features an extremely limited sample size, and the second example, while producing a lot of winners and confidence for bridgejumpers, resulted in a -6% ROI per $2 wager—better than takeout, but hardly the Rosetta stone.
But from a can-I-try-to-turn-1-or-2-to-5-into-even-money-using-other-bets standpoint, these numbers seem to indicate that you’re better off with that approach than trying to beat American Pharoah outright.
Travers day racing begins at 11:45 a.m. EDT (see chart below), and we’ll begin our Travers day a little earlier with a full-card ABC grid. In the meantime, check out our Travers/American Pharoah omnibus featuring all our great content for the weekend!