Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 27

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

April 27th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 27 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in a pair of five-figure carryovers at Keeneland and Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Keeneland.
  • Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
  • Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Bro Park (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Jagersro (SWE).
  • $15,000 Place Jackpot at Keeneland: Place at least six winning $10+ place bets at Keeneland to win your share of a daily $1,000 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#1 Chardy Party (3-1) looks ready to roll on debut for hot trainer Wesley Ward, who has gone 9-for-38 (24%) at Keeneland this spring. The daughter of Dark Angel trained fast over the Palm Meadows turf course during the winter and has continued to show promise since arriving at Keeneland, most recently clocking half a mile over the main track in :47 2/5.

Chardy Party will be ridden on Wednesday by three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz, a 31% winner teaming up with Ward over the last two months. We’ll take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer and place a $10 win bet on Chardy Party.

#4 Trouble Making (15-1), a trifecta finisher in seven of her eight starts on turf, can vie for an exacta finish.

  • $10 to win on #1 Chardy Party
  • $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
    Total: $15

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is a 74, but none of the experienced runners in this maiden dash for Indiana-bred sophomore fillies have posted a figure higher than 57, suggesting the race is ripe for conquest by a first-time starter.

We’ll throw our support behind #9 Idareyoutodance (5-1). Trainer Anthony Granitz wins at a 24% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and sire Daredevil is responsible for a respectable 10% winners from first-time starters. An encouraging half-mile workout in :49 4/5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last week suggests Idareyoutodance can factor on debut.

#6 Last Hurrah (9-5), placed three times sprinting over this track and class level, can complete the exacta.

  • $15 to win on #9 Idareyoutodance
  • $5 Exacta: 9 with 6
  • Total: $20

Keeneland: Race 7: $50,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 4:12 p.m. ET)

There’s very little pace in this two-turn claimer for three-year-olds, so we’ll count on #2 Expensive Cut (3-1) to steal the show.

Expensive Cut ran fourth over this track and class level on April 14, but that effort came in a seven-furlong sprint. Actually, all four of Expensive Cut’s races have been sprints. Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles in a field without much speed can potentially hand Expensive Cut an uncontested lead, and the fact he’ll receive a seven-pound weight allowance courtesy of apprentice jockey Alice Beckman should make Expensive Cut tricky to catch.

#3 Down Cold (9-5) and #5 Silent Disco (3-1) can battle for the exacta.

  • $15 to win on #2 Expensive Cut
  • $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,5 ($10)
    Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Keeneland, Race 3: $49,486 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)

The final week of racing at the 2022 Keeneland Spring Meet begins with a $49,486 Pick 6 carryover up for grabs.

Finding a single in this competitive sequence is tricky, but one nice-priced possibility exists right off the bat in Race 3, a $20,000 starter allowance for older horses racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. In a small field that isn’t exactly stuffed with speed, #5 Hemp Heaven (6-1) figures to sit an ideal trip. The four-year-old gelding is 2-for-2 on dirt, winning a $20,000 claimer sprinting about seven furlongs at Keeneland last spring before nabbing a $30,000 claimer over one mile at Churchill Downs during the fall.

Hemp Heaven flashed tactical speed in both of those victories and brings respectable Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, so don’t be surprised if he winds up stalking morning line favorite #3 Fortune’s Fool (2-1) through the early going. From there, Hemp Heaven should have every chance to keep his perfect dirt record intact with an upset victory.

Charles Town, Race 4: $41,950 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

If the five-figure prize pool at Keeneland isn’t enough to satisfy your thirst for non-jackpot carryovers, then you’re advised to check out the evening card at Charles Town, where a $41,950 Pick 5 carryover is on the table.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out Race 5, a 4 1/2-furlong allowance for West Virginia-bred fillies and mares. #3 Lucylou Who (9-2) finished fourth in her debut sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town, but has since rattled off back-to-back victories over the same track and distance.

Lucylou Who showed impressive speed when wiring a maiden special weight by 4 1/2 lengths, and she again showed speed when surviving a start-to-finish duel to win an allowance by half a length. Considering pacesetters win 60% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town (and this from a large sample size of 174 races), Lucylou Who should be tough to catch under ultra-hot jockey Arnaldo Bocachica, a 31% winner at Charles Town this meet.

Good luck!