Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Aug. 15

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

August 15th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Aug. 15 at Presque Isle Downs and Assiniboia Downs, along with tickets for the $531 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Satin and Lace S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#5 Boo Boo Kitty (15-1) was much the best in a $32,000 allowance optional claimer over this track and distance last month, leading all the way to score by 3 1/2 lengths with a strong 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Only time will tell if Boo Boo Kitty can repeat the feat, but a similarly quick performance would place the improving three-year-old in the hunt for victory against #7 Tactical Pajamas (5-1) and #8 Club Car (9-5). At 15-1, isn’t she worth betting to win and keying on top in the exacta?

  • $20 to win on #5 Boo Boo Kitty
  • $5 Exacta: 5 with 7,8 ($10)
    Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: CTHS Sales S. (six furlongs, 9:35 p.m. ET)

Debutante S. winner #3 Lady Cop (7-5) and runaway maiden winner #4 I Love My Life (9-5) are the favorites in this stakes sprint for juveniles, but both are pure pacesetters who figure to engage in a duel for early supremacy.

A contested pace could benefit the maiden #1 Russian Pearl (4-1), who has finished second behind Lady Cop in each of her first two starts. Russian Pearl rallied gamely to finish just a neck away from victory in the five-furlong Debutante and has a shot to turn the tables while stretching out over six furlongs on Monday.

  • $10 Exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($20)
  • $5 Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4 ($10)
    Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 4: $531 Pick 5 carryover (4:03 p.m. ET)

Did you know the 50-cent Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis (with its low 11.99% takeout rate) boasts a $531 carryover for Monday’s card?

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and plan a play costing just $24:

Race 4: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs)

#2 Mischieviousbud (5-2) has placed in his last two starts over this track and class level, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 71 and 74. He looms as a formidable win threat under hot jockey Edgar Morales (a 23% winner this meet), but #6 Spoke (3-1) is also worth including after obliterating a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 8 1/2 lengths.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#2 Magnificentrevenge (3-1) has been competing with aplomb against tougher competition, finishing second in a pair of $12,500 claimers at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This looks like the perfect spot for Magnificentrevenge to secure her long-awaited second victory, although recent $10,000 maiden claiming winner #7 Rock of Cashel (8-1) might have upside for improvement.

Race 6: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (five furlongs on turf)

#8 Lemos Cunha (2-1) finished second over this course, distance, and class level two starts back before coming home sixth in a stakes. But the stretch-running four-year-old may have to work hard to run down her more tactical rivals #1 Je Suis Belle (12-1) and #4 Honor That (6-1).

Race 7: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#3 Indy Biz (3-1) has placed twice against maiden special weight competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis and should appreciate dropping in class for trainer Aaron West, who wins at a 32% rate with horses descending into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. The only other horse we’ll include is #10 Prince Shim (9-2) (scratched), who has placed second in his last two starts over this track and class level.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf)

#1 One More Laugh (3-1) ran third in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds turf course back in January, earning a strong 77 Brisnet Speed rating. Hot trainer Tom Amoss wins at a 22% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so One More Laugh looks ready to challenge dirt-to-turf switcher #5 An Apple a Day (7-2) for top honors.

  • 50-cent Pick 5: 2,6 with 2,7 with 1,4,8 with 3,10 with 1,5 ($24)

Good luck!