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Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 29

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 29th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $85 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, March 29 at Will Rogers Downs, including a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.
  • Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Axevalla (SWE), Eskilstuna (SWE), or Boden (SWE).

Picks and Plays

Will Rogers Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:00 p.m. ET)

#2 Sheza Hot Flash (4-1) has spent much of her career running one mile or farther, but the speedy mare boasts a solid 2-for-4 record sprinting, including a 5 3/4-length debut win dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Will Rogers Downs.

Sheza Hot Flash has tactical speed and is a head away from having won her last three starts against Oklahoma-bred claiming rivals, which is the type of competition she’ll encounter on Tuesday. She also wired an unrestricted $5,000 claimer at Will Rogers Downs last year, reiterating her affinity for this track.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Sheza Hot Flash looks competitive against morning line favorite #3 Sunday’s Vision (1-1), so we’ll bet for an upset and play Sheza Hot Flash on top of our tickets.

  • $20 to win on #2 Sheza Hot Flash
  • $10 Exacta: 2 with 3
    Total: $30

Will Rogers Downs: Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 2:28 p.m. ET)

#2 Sexy Socks (1-1) is clearly the filly to beat. The Kenneth Molen trainee has been competing against maiden special weight company and has posted five straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 51-66 range. Considering none of her rivals have earned a figure higher than 50, Sexy Socks is easily the fastest runner in the field.

Sexy Socks has posted four workouts at Will Rogers Downs in preparation for her 2022 debut. She placed twice over this track last spring, and Nolen wins at a 24% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so all signs suggest Sexy Socks is sitting on a winning run.

#1 Da Dynasty Diva (4-1), #5 She’s Got Chrome (6-1), and #6 Cold as You (5-1) can battle for places in the trifecta.

  • $5 Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 ($30)

Will Rogers Downs: Race 7: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:48 p.m. ET)

Trainer Patrick Swan has been on fire since the start of the Will Rogers Downs meet, compiling an 8-3-2-2 (38% wins, 88% in the money) record. Apprentice jockey Kylee Jordan has been similarly hot, going 20-8-2-3 (40% win, 65% in the money). They’ll team up in Tuesday’s seventh race with #9 Beckett’s Luckyday (8-1), who looks like a live longshot.

Beckett’s Luckyday never really fired in a tough turf race at Sam Houston in January, finishing sixth. But last December over the Remington Park dirt track, he rallied nicely to finish second in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance sprint for Oklahoma-breds.

Beckett’s Luckyday will return to that class level on Tuesday, and he’s meeting a field with plenty of pace on paper, setting the stage for a winning stretch drive. We’ll bet Beckett’s Luckyday to win, then key him over #1 Frigerator (3-1), #4 Mesta Park (7-2), and #5 That’s Something (5-1) in the exacta.

  • $16 to win on #9 Beckett’s Luckyday
  • $3 Exacta: 9 with 1,4,5 ($9)
  • Total: $25

Good luck!

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