Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 5
Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:
- Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Parx.
Picks and plays
#1 Summer Boss (4-1) has put together a solid work tab at Monmouth Park for trainer Michael Dini, who has a 1-0-1 record from two starts at Parx this meet.
Summer Boss has yet to race, but sire Summer Front is responsible for a respectable 12% winners from first-time starters, and Dini strikes at a 16% rate with horses who debut in maiden claimers.
There are a couple other promising aspects in Summer Boss’ favor.
The rail produces 18% winners in 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Parx and hot jockey Kendrick Carmouche (a 28% winner at Parx) is named to ride.
To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Summer Boss. Then we’ll play him over #2 Monogram (5-1) and #6 Turnpike Bob (9-2) in the exacta.
$10 to win on #1 Summer Boss
$5 exacta: 1 with 2,6 ($10)
#1 Dirty Justice (7-2) needed six starts to break his maiden, but the three-year-old gelding has shown meaningful improvement in recent starts.
After he rallied to win a six-furlong maiden special weight at Indiana Grand, Dirty Justice stepped up in class for a 5 1/2-furlong allowance, where he tracked the pace from a wide position and finished third.
These efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 73, and Dirty Justice’s maiden win was flattered when third-place finisher #7 Ferdan (7-5) returned to win his next start with a 77 Brisnet Speed rating. I’m optimistic Dirty Justice can maintain his superiority over Ferdan on Tuesday.
A win bet on Dirty Justice is in order, followed by a cold exacta play.
$20 to win on #1 Dirty Justice
$10 exacta: 11 with 7
Trainer Timothy Hamm has been on fire at Presque Isle this season, with a win 37% rate. There’s a chance Hamm will run first and second in this one-mile maiden special weight for juvenile fillies, as #5 Mirth ‘n Merriment (5-2) and #2 Music Amore (12-1) both look like logical contenders.
Mirth ‘n Merriment finished fourth, fifth, and second in her first three runs on dirt at Gulfstream Park before a transition to Tapeta at Presque Isle, where she rallied to finish third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight.
She came back to blaze a bullet half-mile in :45 4/5 at Presque Isle, which suggests she can fire a winning shot on the stretch out in distance under leading jockey Pablo Morales.
But don’t count Music Amore out of the mix. The daughter of Mshawish is bred to stretch out and has posted solid Brisnet Speed ratings in two sprints at Presque Isle, so she has upside for improvement running long.
$20 to win on #5 Mirth ‘n Merriment
$10 exacta: 5 with 2