Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Sept. 7

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 7th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Sept. 7 at Indiana Grand, Presque Isle Downs, and Assiniboia Downs, including a ticket for Indiana Grand’s $1,681 Pick 4 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Build Your Assiniboia Closing Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 in win, place, or win-place wagers at Assiniboia Downs from Aug. 30 through Sept. 14, receive a $5 bonus to wager on closing day at Assiniboia (Sept. 15). Wager $100 all eight racing days and receive an additional $100. For every $1,000 wagered from Aug. 30 through Sept. 14, receive an additional $50 bonus.
  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx and Thistledown.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:31 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this maiden sprint for Indiana-bred juveniles don’t appear unbeatable, so we’ll take a chance with the first-time starter #6 Bold Bizness (7-2).

A son of Fed Biz (who sires 12% winners from first-time starters), Bold Bizness has put together a lengthy work tab at Indiana Grand, including five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 July 22. Since 2016, trainer Cipriano Contreras has compiled 3-7-2 record from 16 starts with debut juveniles at Indiana Grand, which equates to a 19% win rate and a 75% in-the-money rate.

Let’s bet Bold Bizness to win and play him over #8 Mister Macho (5-2) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Bold Bizness
$5 exacta: 6 with 8
Total: $25

Presque Isle Downs, Race 5: Maiden special weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#8 McQueen’s Bullitt (9-5) owns the best Brisnet Speed rating in this maiden special weight for Pennsylvania-breds, and the 79 came when he finished second, by a head, in a one-mile event over this track and class level July 19.

But can McQueen’s Bullitt reproduce the effort on the cut back to six furlongs? His best efforts have come running long, and his lone sprint try at Presque Isle produced a sixth-place finish.

In contrast, #6 Commodore Barry (3-1) posted a 73 Brisnet Speed rating (the second-highest figure in Tuesday’s field) when he finished second at this track, distance, and class level Aug. 17. If you draw a line through his recent fifth-place finish running long in an open $15,000 claimer, Commodore Berry’s form looks rock-solid.

Let’s bet Commodore Barry to win, then play him over #6 Magicstick (5-1) in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Commodore Barry
$5 exacta: 6 with 7
Total: $25

Assiniboia Downs, Race 6: J. W. Sifton S. (1 1/8 miles, 11:05 p.m. ET)

#6 Impressive Sense (8-5) and #1 Call the Cops (9-5) rank a cut above their rivals, from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and are also the most accomplished runners in the field. They ran first and second in the six-furlong Frank Arnason Sire S. at Assiniboia two months ago and will have every chance to do the same Tuesday.

Of the pair, I prefer Impressive Sense. Trainer Lise Pruitt wins at a 37% rate in ungraded stakes, and Impressive Sense counts the stakes-winning routers Nose the Pose and She’s Regal among his half-siblings. The stretch out to 1 1/8 miles should be within reach for Impressive Sense.

A cold exacta, with Impressive Sense over Call the Cops, might be the best way to generate a solid return on investment betting the J. W. Sifton. But if you want to quickly capitalize on the Build Your Assiniboia Closing Day Bankroll promotion, why not consider a $100 place bet on Impressive Sense?

$25 exacta: 6 with 1
$100 to place on #6 Impressive Sense

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 1: $1,681 Pick 4 carryover (2:25 p.m. ET)

It isn’t every day we get to chase a Pick 4 carryover, so the non-jackpot prize pool up for grabs at Indiana Grand is worth pursuing.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence, then assemble a ticket on a $24 budget.

Race 1: $10,000 claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#1 Forensic File (3-1) beat slightly easier $10,000 claiming company at Indiana Grand last month, when he showed speed to snatch a 5 1/2-furlong sprint by 3 1/4 lengths.

The 75 Brisnet Speed rating he received is strong, through #6 Truckin’ On (5-2) has faced tougher company and finished ahead of Forensic File three starts back. We’ll use them both to kick off the Pick 4.

Race 2: $35,000 maiden claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#2 Bella Prima (2-1) looks tough to beat in this maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies.

Last time out, she finished fourth in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, a race won by future Ellis Park Debutante S. winner Verylittlecents.

But don’t overlook the chances of #4 Queen in the North (9-2), whose trainer — Tom Amoss — has won 12 of 40 starts (30%) with debut juveniles in dirt sprints at Indiana Grand since 2016.

Race 3: $25,000 claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf)

#3 Jolting Joe (7-5) is a logical favorite, after he finished third at this course and class level last month.

The former stakes competitor was claimed out of that race by Kim Hammond, who strikes at a 25% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

But since Jolting Joe’s Brisnet Speed ratings have been on decline since last season, we’ll back him up with #2 Buckets of Rain (7-2), #6 Shofar (3-1), and #7 Trumps Revenge (8-1).

Race 4: $10,000 maiden claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

There is very little pace in this two-turn dirt route, which could lend an advantage to #9 Get Lucky Justice (6-1), who showed speed when she placed second and third in her first two route runs. Both of those efforts came against maiden special weight company, so a descent to the $10,000 maiden claiming level should make Get Lucky Justice formidable.

#11 Prized Cupcake (5-2) are #2 Lookin Royal (3-1) are the others we’ll include.

50-cent Pick 4: 1,6 with 2,4 with 2,3,6,7 with 2,9,11 ($24)

Good luck!

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