Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 19

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

July 19th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, July 19 at Colonial Downs and Presque Isle Downs, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Colonial Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Woodline (7-5) has cracked the trifecta in six of his seven starts against maiden special weight company, but the fact he’s 0-for-7 hints he might not be a colt to trust for win purposes.

What if we oppose Woodline with #5 Golden Hornet (3-1)? The unraced sophomore is trained by Larry Rivelli, who strikes at a lofty 28% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Golden Hornet has put together an encouraging work tab and even clocked a bullet half-mile in :48 at Colonial Downs earlier this month, suggesting he’s a viable win contender under hot jockey Jareth Loveberry.

  • $20 Exacta: 5 with 1

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on Tapeta, 2:24 p.m. ET)

#2 Colonel Poppy (2-1) ran well in his debut over this track, distance, and class level, settling off the pace before rallying to finish second. Hot trainer S. Matthew Kintz wins at a 27% rate in maiden special weights, and Colonel Poppy breezed a sharp half-mile at Presque Isle last week, suggesting another strong effort is in the offing.

#3 Dontinvademyspace (5-2), third behind Colonel Poppy in the latter’s debut, can battle with the fast-working #1 Legend of Charlie (6-1) for the minor awards. We’ll bet the exacta and trifecta, with the latter play aimed at capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $12 Exacta: 2 with 1,3 ($24)
  • $3 Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3 ($6)
    Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kelsey Danner is off to a hot start at Colonial Downs, compiling a 5-2-0-2 (40%) record. So why not throw some support behind Danner’s unraced two-year-old filly #1 Dandelion (9-2)?

Danner won with his lone juvenile first-time starter at Colonial last year, and Dandelion has put together a solid work tab in preparation for her debut, including a quick half-mile in :48 at Colonial Downs. Sire Free Drop Billy was a Grade 1-winning two-year-old, and dam How Nice has already foaled a pair of debut-winning juveniles from two starters.

A win bet on Dandelion will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta using #4 Wilma Mankiller (5-2), #5 Phlox (5-1), and #6 Alma Rosa (3-1) for second place.

  • $18 to win on #1 Dandelion
  • $4 Exacta: 1 with 4,5,6 ($12)
    Total: $30

Good luck!