Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 5

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July 5th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, July 5 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a pair of 6-1 midrange longshots.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#3 Plain Or Peanut (3-1) broke very badly in his debut sprinting five furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course, spotting the field five lengths. But despite falling 13 lengths behind a blazing opening quarter-mile in :21.24, Plain Or Peanut closed some ground late to finish fifth, 5 3/4 lengths behind the second-place finisher.

Speaking of second place, runner-up Bourbon Therapy returned to win his next start under similar conditions at Horseshoe Indianapolis, so it’s safe to say Plain Or Peanut met a decent field on debut. He’s bred to excel running long on dirt, so if Plain Or Peanut breaks cleanly while stretching out and switching surfaces, he can beat first-time starter #2 Out of Alcatraz (7-5) to the finish line.

  • $20 to win on #3 Plain Or Peanut
  • $10 Exacta: 3 with 2
    Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 4:34 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer John Ortiz has compiled a 5-4-1-0 record debuting juveniles at Horseshoe Indianapolis. For those keeping count, that’s a stellar 80% win rate and a 100% in-the-money rate.

Ortiz can keep his momentum rolling with #5 Fire Baby (6-1). The son of Grade 1-placed sprinter Unified has put together a solid work tab and will be guided by jockey Gage Holmes, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) teaming up with Ortiz over the last two months.

At 6-1, a win bet on Fire Baby is definitely in order. We’ll also play him over #2 Twist of Faith (5-2) and #4 Bread Winner (3-1) in the exacta and trifecta, designing the latter ticket to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $20 to win on #5 Fire Baby
  • $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,4 ($10)
  • $2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 2,4 ($5)
    Total: $35

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Karl Boyes S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#10 Outadore (6-1) is 4-for-4 sprinting and 2-for-2 over synthetic tracks. The speedy Wesley Ward trainee is versatile in terms of running style and has beaten some classy runners while accumulating three stakes wins plus a third-place finish in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1).

Outadore hasn’t run in more than a year, but he’s been training steadily for his return and looks likely to challenge under Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales.

The red-hot #5 The Sinner Is You (5-1) can battle with multiple graded stakes winner #9 Souper Stonehenge (7-2) for second place.

  • $20 to win on #10 Outadore
  • $5 Exacta: 10 with 5,9 ($10)
    Total: $30

Good luck!