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Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays June 21

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

June 21st, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, June 21 at Parx Racing and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $723 Pick 5 carryover at Belterra Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 8: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on turf, 4:04 p.m. ET)

#2 Warn (3-1) showed promising form on turf during the winter at Gulfstream Park, most notably rallying to finish second in a $25,000 maiden claimer. He misfired in a slow-paced $16,000 maiden claimer on Tapeta when last seen, but a two-month freshening and a return to turf can help Warn bounce back in his second start for trainer Kelly Breen.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Warn. Then we’ll play him over the class-dropping duo of #3 Merging Traffic (6-1) and #10 Tiddly Wink (7-2) in the exacta.

  • $10 to win on #2 Warn
  • $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,10 ($10)
    Total: $20

Parx Racing: Race 10: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:58 p.m. ET)

#4 Dreams Untold (5-1) might not be the most consistent horse in training, but his admirable 12-5-3-1 record at Parx towers over his 6-1-1-0 record at all other tracks, suggesting he holds a special affinity for this oval.

Certainly Dreams Untold was impressive in the six-furlong Blitzen S. over this track last December, dominating by 3 3/4 lengths. He’s been freshened since a runner-up effort in the March 7 Washington Crossing S. racing one mile and 70 yards and has trained sharply for his return, suggesting Dreams Untold can challenge at a nice price under hot jockey Frankie Pennington.

#3 Wudda U Think Now (3-1), #5 Monday Morning Qb (6-1), and #7 Fortheluvofbourbon (4-1) can battle for exacta and trifecta honors. But our first play will be a $10 win bet on Dreams Untold, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

  • $10 to win on #4 Dreams Untold
  • $3 Exacta: 4 with 3,5,7 ($9)
  • $1 Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7 ($6)
    Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 9:45 p.m. ET)

#7 Golden Rapper (9-2) has upside for improvement while competing for only the second time. In his June 1 debut over this track, distance, and class level, Golden Rapper overcame some early trouble to rally hard and finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

Golden Rapper retains the services of hot jockey Marcelino Pedroza (a 22% winner this meet), so we’ll bet Golden Rapper to win and key him over #5 For Mama (3-1) in the exacta.

  • $15 to win on #7 Golden Rapper
  • $15 Exacta: 7 with 5
    Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belterra Park, Race 4: $723 Pick 5 carryover (1:02 p.m. ET)

The $723 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs on Tuesday at Belterra Park isn’t massive from a monetary standpoint, but the 50-cent bet is nevertheless enticing.

The Belterra Pick 5 is a non-jackpot wager that splits carryovers among all winning bettors, so there’s decent betting value to chase on Tuesday. The ultimate payoff is unlikely to be massive, but by keeping ticket costs on the smaller side, a winning ticket stands to yield a respectable return on investment.

With the goal of minimizing costs, we’ve analyzed the Pick 5 and identified a pair of runners who loom as viable singles in the competitive sequence:

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs): #5 Maynard G. Krebs (5-2)

In a field that hasn’t come up very tough on paper, Maynard G. Krebs seems like a logical choice. The son of Tapiture finished fifth in his debut against maiden special weight company at Belterra Park last summer, then shrugged off an 11-month layoff to finish second in a $10,000 maiden claimer over this track on June 9.

Maynard G. Krebs is eligible to step forward in his second start off the layoff, which is significant since the 56 Brisnet Speed rating he posted in his comeback run already tops Tuesday’s field. Any improvement at all would cement Maynard G. Krebs as a viable single.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs): #1 Enjoyment (5-2)

Enjoyment misfired in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month, finishing seventh after tracking the early pace. But the distance may have been too far for the son of Tapizar, who previously rallied to finish second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Mahoning Valley, earning a solid 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

Cutting back in distance should suit Enjoyment just fine, especially since hot trainer Cirilo Gorostieta wins at a 23% rate with horses making the route-to-sprint transition. Enjoyment is also picking up hot jockey John McKee, a 26% winner at Belterra this meet. In short, Enjoyment looks tough to deny.

Good luck!

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