Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 30

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March 30th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 30 at Tampa Bay Downs and Will Rogers Downs, including a pair of win bets capitalizing on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Will Rogers Downs.
  • Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sha Tin (Hong Kong).
  • Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Momarken (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Jagersro (SWE).

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs, 1:33 p.m. ET)

After competing without much success over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track, #7 Takemyshot (2-1) enjoyed switching to dirt for a $16,000 maiden claiming sprint seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs. After settling off the pace in sixth, Takemyshot rallied nicely to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 67 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping down to the $10,000 maiden claiming level should allow Takemyshot to challenge for victory in his second start for hot trainer Scott Acker, a 24% winner at Tampa Bay Downs.

#6 Poseidons Myth (5-2) can complete the exacta.

  • $15 to win on #7 Takemyshot
  • $5 Exacta: 7 with 6
    Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:28 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, the fastest horse entered in this maiden dash for Oklahoma-bred fillies and mares is #10 Sinnin N Grinnin (3-1). The daughter of Kantharos posted a 77 when rallying to finish second by a neck in her debut sprinting six furlongs over this class level at Remington Park. The effort was flattered when third-place finisher Bring It On Baby returned to win her next start against similar company.

Trainer Kari Craddock wins at a respectable 15% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Sinnin N Grinnin should be ready to fire a competitive shot in her 2022 debut. We’ll bet Sinnin N Grinnin to win (taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer), then key her over logical favorite #6 Lil’ Jimmi Sue (5-2) in a cold exacta.

  • $10 to win on #10 Sinnin N Grinnin
  • $10 Exacta: 10 with 6
    Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs: Race 6: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 4:28 p.m. ET)

There aren’t any standouts among the experienced horses in this five-furlong maiden claimer, so we’ll take a shot betting the first-time starter #5 Octagon (4-1).

Octagon hails from the barn of Kenneth Nolen, a 36% winner with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Octagon’s pedigree contains some early-maturing bloodlines (half-brother Cowboy Mischief won multiple stakes at age three), and the gray colt has put together a solid work tab at Will Rogers Downs, including a half-mile from the starting gate in :48 4/5.

Thanks to the Midweek Bet Back offer, we can place a $10 win bet on Octagon and receive a refund if he settles for second place. We’ll also bet him over class-dropping #2 Keetoowah Thunder (7-2) and Delta Downs shipper #6 La’ Hopper (5-2) in the exacta.

  • $10 to win on #5 Octagon
  • $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,6 ($10)
    Total: $20

Good luck!