Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 7
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, March 7 at Parx Racing, including a ticket for the mandatory-payout $240,353 Pick 5 carryover.
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Picks and Plays
Parx Racing: Race 8: Fishtown S. (six furlongs, 3:53 p.m. ET)
#4 Twisted Ride (5-2) has been in hot form for high-percentage trainer Michael Moore, who has gone 9-for-26 (35%) at Parx since the start of the year. After wiring a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for Pennsylvaina-breds on Jan. 30, Twisted Ride employed pace-tracking tactics to trounce a $35,000 allowance optional claimer on Feb. 13 by four lengths.
Twisted Ride’s five starts at Parx since Nov. 8 have produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 97, 106, 91, 95, and 101, so the Fishtown S. should be ripe for Twisted Ride to conquer. We’ll single him to start a double wager and key him over #8 Five Dreams (4-1) in an exacta.
- #4 Twisted Ride (5-2)
- #8 Five Dreams (4-1)
- #1 Dreams Untold (8-1)
- $15 Double: 4 with 3
- $15 Exacta: 4 with 8
Parx Racing: Race 9: Penn’s Landing S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:22 p.m. ET)
#3 Disco Ebo (8-5) has been sharp since arriving at Parx this winter. On Jan. 24, he pressed the pace on his way to a two-length victory in a six-furlong allowance. On Feb. 15, he led by daylight at every call of a 5 1/2-furlong allowance to dominate by 6 3/4 lengths.
These efforts produced improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 95 and 106, stamping Disco Ebo as the horse to beat in the Penn’s Landing. #8 Nurturing (4-1), fresh off back-to-back allowance optional claiming and starter optional claiming wins at Parx, can complete the exacta.
- #3 Disco Ebo (8-5)
- #8 Nurturing (4-1)
- #9 Centre Court Champ (5-1)
- $25 Exacta: 3 with 8
Parx Racing: Race 10: Washington Crossing S. (one mile and 70 yards, 4:51 p.m. ET)
#2 Market Maven (5-2) is 3-for-4 running long, with his lone defeat coming against tougher competition in the 2021 Wood Memorial (G2). All three of Market Maven’s route victories have been achieved by daylight margins, including an 11 1/2-length romp in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer over this track and distance on Jan. 17.
There isn’t a crazy amount of pace in the Washington Crossing field, so Market Maven should sit a comfortable trip setting or pressing the pace. We’ll bet him to win and play him over #3 Treasure Trove (5-1) and #9 American Patrol (4-1) in the exacta.
- #2 Market Maven (5-2)
- #3 Treasure Trove (5-1)
- #9 American Patrol (4-1)
- $18 to win on #2 Market Maven
- $6 Exacta: 2 with 3,9 ($12)
Parx Racing, Race 7: $240,353 Pick 5 mandatory payout (3:24 p.m. ET)
By far the most lucrative carryover available to chase on Tuesday can be found at Parx Racing. The 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5 is normally a jackpot-style wager, but on Tuesday the $240,353 jackpot is scheduled for a mandatory payout. That means all winning bettors will split the carryover, no unique winning ticket required.
Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a $36 ticket:
Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)
#6 Live Aid (5-2) is shaping up as the mare to beat. She’s been squaring off against tougher competition, most notably finishing fourth by one length in a $10,000 claimer over this track and distance two starts back. But #3 Leviosa (9-2), #9 World Gone Wild (4-1), and #10 Afleet Diva (5-1) have all posted victories at the $5,000 level and are fast enough to factor.
Race 8: Fishtown S. (six furlongs)
#4 Twisted Ride (5-2) is our top choice as outlined previously. He trounced key rival Five Dreams by four lengths in his most recent start, so we’ll take a stand and single Twisted Ride in the Pick 5.
What is a single, and why are they valuable?— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) August 7, 2021
That's a great question!
Let's ask @J_Keelerman ⬇️ https://t.co/WTuXqaYlAW
Race 9: Penn’s Landing S. (6 1/2 furlongs)
Our second single of the sequence is #3 Disco Ebo (8-5), whose hot form and strong Brisnet Speed ratings offer appeal. By singling logical favorites in two of the stakes, we can afford to spread deeper in other legs of the Pick 5.
Race 10: Washington Crossing S. (one mile and 70 yards)
#2 Market Maven (5-2) is our top choice for reasons outlined earlier, but for Pick 5 purposes we’ll use logical rivals #3 Treasure Trove (5-1) and #9 American Patrol (4-1) as backup.
Race 11: $10,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs)
The final leg of the Pick 5 has drawn a competitive field of 11 horses. There are many logical contenders, so we’ll spread deep with #1 Speedy Bolt (6-1), #2 Osprey (8-1), #4 Easy Day (3-1), #6 Askin for a Baskin (5-1), #7 Get the W (7-2), and #8 Cajun Lover (8-1).
- 50-cent Pick 5: 3,6,9,10 with 4 with 3 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,4,6,7,8 ($36)