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Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays May 10

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 10th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, May 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $1,318 Super High 5 carryover at Louisiana Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 8: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:20 p.m. ET)

#6 Next Generation (3-1) looks like a promising filly. The daughter of Shackleford won her debut sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning Valley by dueling for the lead, then employed the same tactics to finish second by a nose in a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning.

These efforts produced solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 72, and Next Generation’s allowance run was flattered when the third-place finisher returned to win her next start. Next Generation was favored to win that allowance race, and since high-percentage trainer William Cowans wins at a 40% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start, we can expect Next Generation to produce another competitive showing on Tuesday.

#5 Hosanna (7-2) and #8 Congrats Jensen (9-2) can complete the exacta and trifecta.

  • $20 to win on #6 Next Generation
  • $5 Exacta: 6 with 5,8 ($10)
  • $2.50 Trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 5,8 ($5)
    Total: $35

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#1 Queen in the North (4-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts and ran especially well in her turf debut over this course, distance, and class level on Oct. 13. After carving out a quick pace, Queen in the North got nailed at the finish line and finished second by a nose.

This effort produced a competitive 74 Brisnet Speed rating, and Queen in the North is eligible to run even better in her sophomore debut. Trainer Tom Amoss wins at a 23% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and the Amoss barn has been ultra-hot to start the Horseshoe Indianapolis meet, going 5-for-11 (45%).

#6 Honor That (3-1), runner-up in a maiden special weight over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course, can complete the exacta. But our first play will be a $10 win bet on Queen in the North, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

  • $10 to win on #1 Queen in the North
  • $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
    Total: $15

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 6:38 p.m. ET)

#1 Go Emi (6-1) showed some promise in a pair of starts against maiden special weight company last year. After rallying to finish third in a 5 1/2-furlong dash at Indiana Grand (an event won by next-out allowance winner and future graded stakes competitor Bodock), Go Emi ran sixth with a troubled trip sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs.

Go Emi’s Churchill effort yielded an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Tuesday’s field. Go Emi hasn’t run since, but the son of Lord Nelson breezed a bullet half-mile in :48 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last week, suggesting he can produce a competitive effort off the layoff.

#2 Classic King (4-1), #3 Gaon Flag (2-1), and #8 Bourbon Talking (8-1) can round out the trifecta. But of course, we’ll start with a $10 win bet on Go Emi, designed to take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer.

  • $10 to win on #1 Go Emi
  • $2 Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,8 with 2,3,8 ($12)
    Total: $22

Carryover Watch

Louisiana Downs, Race 7: $1,318 Super High 5 carryover (6:49 p.m. ET)

Ready to chase a carryover? We recommend checking out the $1,318 prize pool up for grabs in the 50-cent Super High 5 at Louisiana Downs.

The carryover is on the table in Race 7, a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races lifetime. The distance is six furlongs on dirt, and eight horses have been entered, which equates to 6,720 possible outcomes.

The morning line favorite is #4 Outerbanks (3-1), who posted six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 71-77 range during the second half of 2021. But Outerbanks barely ran a step in his 2022 debut, getting distanced early in a $10,000 starter optional claimer before easing up down the homestretch. That effort was three months ago, so Outerbanks is eligible to bounce back, but the fact he’s exiting such a subpar showing is a cause for pause.

An intriguing alternative to Outerbanks is #8 Doctrinaire (5-1). The five-year-old gelding has been in hot form at Fair Grounds this year, compiling a 3-2-0-1 record on dirt. He was especially sharp in a $5,000 claimer for Louisiana-bred non-winners of two races lifetime, tracking the early pace before taking command to win by 1 1/2 lengths with a career-best 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Doctrinaire is stepping up in class and hasn’t run quite as fast on paper as Outerbanks, but he has plenty of tactical speed and is meeting a field without much pace. If Doctrinaire shakes loose up front, he may forget to stop down the homestretch.

For the minor awards, we have to respect #7 Quana Dude (9-2), who has hit the board in his last seven starts over this class level. And while #3 Super Wise (4-1) has been soundly defeated in his last five starts against tougher competition at Oaklawn Park, he’s eligible to step forward while facing easier foes at Louisiana Downs. #2 Ramaah (9-2) is also worth a look after posting competitive Brisnet Speed ratings at Sam Houston.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

  • 50-cent Super High 5: 8 with 4 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7 with ALL ($12)
  • 50-cent Super High 5: 8 with 2,3,7 with 4 with 2,3,7 with ALL ($12)
  • 50-cent Super High 5: 8 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7 with 4 with ALL ($12)
  • Total: $36

Good luck!

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