Keeler Johnson's picks and plays May 3

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 3rd, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, May 3 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a pair of win bets capitalizing on the Kentucky Derby Week Money Back offer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.
  • Kentucky Derby Week Money Back Offer: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Churchill Downs. Credits will be issued within two hours after each race, so you can get right back in on the action.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S. (1 1/2 miles, 1:14 p.m. ET)

#1 Lone Rock (3-5) has been a superstar racing 1 1/2 miles or farther, winning six of his last seven starts over such configurations. His flashy résumé includes a 3 3/4-length victory in the 2021 edition of the Isaac Murphy Marathon, as well as triumphs in the Brooklyn S. (G2) and Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S. (G2).

Lone Rock was as sharp as ever in the 1 1/2-mile Temperence Hill S. at Oaklawn Park last month, winning by a neck over next-out Oaklawn H. (G2) winner Last Samurai. Tactical speed is a strong suit for Lone Rock, so he figures to sit a perfect trip setting or pressing a slow pace in this five-horse field.

Taking advantage of the Kentucky Derby Week Money Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Lone Rock. Then we’ll key him over #2 Current (7-2) and #4 Tenfold (5-2) in a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $10 to win on #1 Lone Rock
  • $5 Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 ($10)
    Total: $20

Churchill Downs: Race 4: $50,000 Claiming (seven furlongs, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#1 Regal Retort (8-5) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in three starts this season, but two of those runs came against stakes company, including when seventh in the Barbara Fritchie S. (G3) at Laurel.

Regal Retort most recently produced a rally to finish fourth in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths. Dropping in class and switching to Churchill Downs can trigger a rebound from Regal Retort, who dominated an $80,000 allowance optional claimer over this track and distance last fall. Her 12 1/4-length margin of victory produced an impressive 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

Following up with the Kentucky Derby Week Money Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Regal Retort. Then we’ll key her over #4 Dance Rhythms (7-2) in a small exacta.

  • $10 to win on #1 Regal Retort
  • $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
    Total: $15

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#6 Chipofftheoldblock (6-5) has been facing tough competition at Oaklawn Park, most recently rallying to finish third behind champion sprinter Jackie’s Warrior in the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3).  Along the way, Chipofftheoldblock has posted six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 89-99 range.

On paper, Chipofftheoldblock is easily the fastest horse in this 5 1/2-furlong allowance for Indiana-breds. There should be plenty of pace to set up his late rally, so we’ll capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer and place a $10 win bet on Chipofftheoldblock.

Speedsters #1 Smokin Richie (5-1) and #3 Nobody Listens (9-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

  • $10 to win on #6 Chipofftheoldblock
  • $5 Exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($10)
    Total: $20

Good luck!