Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 10

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November 10th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Nov. 10 at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Churchill Downs $2,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs to split a $2,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 4: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 1:46 p.m. ET)

#7 Super Quality (6-1) carved out the pace in a $40,000 maiden claimer racing one mile on Sept. 30 at Aqueduct before weakening to finish fourth behind a runaway winner. Dropping down to the $20,000 level and cutting back to six furlongs should help his chances; Super Quality has placed twice in $40,000 maiden claimers sprinting on turf, and trainer Rob Atras wins at a lofty 35% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

At 6-1, Super Quality is worth betting to win and playing over #6 Sean the Hammer (5-2) and #9 Psychic Income (9-5) in the exacta.

  • $20 to win on #7 Super Quality
  • $5 Exacta: 7 with 6,9 ($10)
    Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#7 Julia’s Chardonnay (8-5) is the favorite after running third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over this track on Oct. 12. But on that occasion, Julia’s Chardonnay finished only 1 1/4 lengths clear of the first-time starter #2 Belle Elena (2-1).

Julia’s Chardonnay has run five times and may have less upside for improvement than Belle Elena, whose trainer—Steve Asmussen—strikes at a 21% rate with second-time starters. If Belle Elena moves forward in her second run, the daughter of champion Good Magic can spring a mild surprise against Julia’s Chardonnay.

  • $15 to win on #2 Belle Elena
  • $15 Exacta: 2 with 7
    Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:31 p.m. ET)

#8 Unifying (9-2) showed promise when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct two months ago. After tracking the pace from third place, Unifying advanced to challenge in midstretch, then flattened out slightly to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths.

This effort produced an encouraging 88 Brisnet Speed rating, so Unifying looks ready to give #4 Sirius Light (7-2) and #7 Happysecret (4-1) a tussle for supremacy. We’ll play the race accordingly with a win bet, exacta, and trifecta.

  • $15 to win on #8 Unifying
  • $5 Exacta: 8 with 4,7 ($10)
  • $2.50 Trifecta: 8 with 4,7 with 4,7 ($5)
    Total: $30

Good luck!