Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 15

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 15th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Nov. 15 at Mahoning Valley and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $16,062 Pick 5 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings (excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day) on every Tuesday through Nov. 29.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs, 12:45 p.m. ET)

Five Ohio-bred juvenile fillies have entered this allowance dash, but only one has posted a victory at Mahoning Valley. That would be #3 In Troubled Waters (4-1), who smashed a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Oct. 29 by 8 1/4 lengths.

This powerful performance yielded an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest figure in Tuesday’s field. The strength of the race was reiterated when the distant runner-up returned to win her next start. At 4-1 in a small field, In Troubled Waters is worth keying on top in the trifecta and singling in a double wager. We’ll play the trifecta in order to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $20 Double: 3 with 1
    $5 Trifecta: 3 with 2 with 1,4 ($10)
  • Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: $8,000 Starter Allowance (one mile, 1:13 p.m. ET)

#1 Oaks Honey (6-5) has won four of her five starts since transferring to the care of trainer Glenroy Brown, who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) to start the Mahoning Valley meet. Oaks Honey dominated a pair of $8,000 starter allowances for Ohio-breds at Thistledown during the summer and more recently nabbed consecutive non-state-restricted allowances at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley, earning flashy Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 85 for the latter two victories.

Oaks Honey owns by far the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in Tuesday’s field, so we’ll single her to conclude our double wager and key her over #4 Beat the Dealer (9-2) in an exacta.

  • $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $12,500 Claiming (one mile, 3:01 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, the co-fastest entrant in this $12,500 claimer is #4 Out Work’n (5-1). The four-year-old clipped heels and lost his jockey in his latest start at Churchill Downs, but previously cracked the trifecta in five straight races on the Kentucky and Ohio circuits.

Two starts back, Out Work’n ran second in a six-furlong allowance at Belterra Park, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating tied for the highest figure posted by any horse in Tuesday’s field. Out Work’n had previously put up figures of 81, 73, and 77, so he consistently runs fast enough to vie for victory at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

At 5-1, Out Work’n is a solid win play and a horse worth keying on top in the exacta. We’ll use #2 Rounder (5-2) and #7 Killer Bee (4-1) for second place.

  • $20 to win on #4 Out Work’n
  • $5 Exacta: 4 with 2,7 ($10)
    Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes, Race 4: $16,061 Pick 5 carryover (2:37 p.m. ET)

No one managed to select all five winners in Monday’s 50-cent Pick 5 at Finger Lakes, and you know what that means—it’s carryover time!

The prize pool for Tuesday is an enticing $16,062, not bad for a non-jackpot midweek carryover. The Pick 5 gets underway in Race 4, a $5,000 claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on dirt. Eight horses have been entered, but morning line favorite #7 I Am the Cash Man (7-5) looks like a viable single.

I Am the Cash Man hasn’t missed the exacta in his last four starts. Two starts back, he ran second in a $25,000 claimer at Saratoga, and last time out he led all the way to win a $5,000 claimer at Finger Lakes by six easy lengths. Trainer Christopher Progno has been hot at Finger Lakes (winning at a 30% rate), and jockey Oscar Gomez has gone 2-for-4 (50%) teaming up with Progno over the last two months, so there’s a lot to like about I Am the Cash Man.

Another logical single can be found in Race 8, the concluding leg of the Pick 5. The event in question is a $5,000 maiden claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, conditions which should suit #4 Days Remembered (8-5) just fine.

Days Remembered spent his first six starts competing against tougher company on the Kentucky and Pennsylvania circuits before traveling to Finger Lakes for a $5,000 maiden claimer on Nov. 1. Making his first start for trainer Paul Barrow, Days Remembered tracked the early pace before rallying in the final furlong to finish second by a neck, earning a sharp 67 Brisnet Speed rating.

Barrow wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses running for the second time under his care, so Days Remembered is eligible to move forward on Tuesday. He’s already decisively defeated the second and third choices on Tuesday’s morning line, so anything close to a repeat of his Nov. 1 performance should send Days Remembered to the winner’s circle as a short-priced Pick 5 single.

Good luck!