Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 10

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 10th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Nov. 10 at Indiana Grand and Churchill Downs, plus suggested single for Mahoning Valley’s $12,381 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:03 p.m. ET)

#2 Datttsafancyfox (7-2) is an unraced juvenile hailing from the barn of Brian Lynch, who wins at a solid 19% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Considering Lynch’s overall strike rate with first-time starters is just 9%, it seems reasonable to conclude Datttsafancyfox will be primed for a solid showing on Wednesday.

Certainly Dattsafancyfox has the pedigree to be a productive racehorse. Sire Divining Rod is responsible for 30% winners from first-time starters, while dam Fancy Dattt has foaled four winners form four starters. Datttsafancyfox has also put together a lengthy work tab at Churchill Downs. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Mitchell Murrill (11-for-33 so far this meet), and Datttsafancyfox looks like a solid win candidate.

The class-dropping #3 Practice Squad (4-1) can complete the exacta.

  • $25 to win on #2 Datttsafancyfox
  • $5 Exacta: 2 with 3
  • Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Allowance (one mile, 4:06 p.m. ET)

#6 Defeater (2-1) didn’t fire his strongest shot in the 1 1/8-mile Oklahoma Derby (G3) last month, rallying mildly before flattening out to finish sixth. But there’s a strong chance the son of Union Rags will fare better at Churchill Downs.

For starters, Defeater is dropping down the class ladder. For another, he’s cutting back in distance to a one-turn mile. Two starts back, Defeater finished a strong second in a seven-furlong allowance sprint around one turn at Saratoga, beaten only by the promising Speaker’s Corner. This effort produced a 94 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest figure in Wednesday’s field.

Even at 2-1, Defeater is worth betting to win. But we’ll also play him over #2 Malibu Star (5-2) in the exacta.

  • $25 to win on #6 Defeater
  • $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  • Total: $30

Indiana Grand: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#5 Amazingness (8-5) is favored after placing in five of her seven starts over this track and class level. But her strongest efforts have come running one mile, so cutting back in distance is a question mark. Plus, her 7-0-3-2 career resume—while encouraging in a sense—can also be viewed as a sign Amazingness is more likely to settle for a minor award than visit the winner’s circle.

We’ll take a shot against the favorite with #6 Tryinforjustice (20-1). Granted, she’s failed to seriously factor in two of her three starts. But back in July, the bay filly ran second in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Indiana Grand, in the process finishing three-quarters of a length clear of Amazingness.

Tryinforjustice has been freshened since August and is eligible to produce an improved performance in her first start for trainer George Leonard. Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Tryinforjustice, then play her over Amazingness in a small exacta.

  • $10 to win on #6 Tryinforjustice
  • $5 Exacta: 6 with 5
  • Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley, Race 1: $12,381 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Ready to chase a non-jackpot carryover? Then you’re in luck, because Mahoning Valley has a $12,381 Pick 5 carryover on tap for Wednesday.

The 50-cent wager features a low 15% takeout rate, and in the event no one assembles a winning ticket, 50% of the daily pool will be divided as consolation among bettors who select the highest number of winners.

If this sounds enticing, then here are a couple of suggested singles to build Pick 5 tickets around:

Race 2: $6,500 Claiming: #2 Clearly Visible (6-5)

Never off the board in half a dozen starts, the three-year-old filly Clearly Visible looks like a perfect fit for this one-mile claimer. The daughter of Florida Derby (G1) winner Dialed In won a maiden special weight over this trip during the summer at Thistledown, and her form since then remains promising.

Indeed, after finishing fourth in a six-furlong allowance dash at Thistledown, Clearly Visible returned to one mile for a $12,500 claimer at Mahoning Valley, where she dueled for the early lead before weakening late to finish third.

Descending to the $6,500 claiming level on Wednesday should make Clearly Visible difficult to defeat. She has enough tactical speed to be prominent from the outset under hot jockey Luis Rivera, and her Brisnet Speed ratings look competitive. Clearly Visible will have every chance to deliver a short-priced victory for Pick 5 bettors.

Race 4: Allowance: #4 Shez Shacked Up (6-5)

Which runner is fastest in this one-mile allowance for fillies and mares? According to the Brisnet Speed ratings, it’s Shez Shacked Up.

A pure pacesetter conditioned by hot trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, Shez Shacked Up arguably went out too fast, too soon in a six-furlong allowance sprint at Mahoning last month. After dashing to a four-length advantage, Shez Shacked Up weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth.

But Shez Shacked Up had previously posted five straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-76 range, peaking with her runner-up effort in the 1 1/16-mile Tomboy S. over the Belterra Park turf course. Racing one mile over the Mahoning Valley dirt should suit Shez Shacked Up just fine, since she figures to secure an easy lead while stretching out from a sprint and facing a small field.

There are no certainties in horse racing, but Shez Shacked Up looks like a trustworthy Pick 5 single.

Good luck!

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