Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 12

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 12th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs and Remington Park, along with a ticket for the $8,615 Super High 5 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Belmont Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
  • Churchill Downs Bet Back 2nd and 3rd: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
  • $10,000 Place Jackpot at Del Mar: Make a winning $5+ place bet in at least six races at Del Mar to win your share of a daily $500 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Dox Biz (4-1) didn’t fire the best shot when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, flashing some early speed before giving way to finish last. But there are reasons to believe the son of Fed Biz can produce a stronger effort at Churchill Downs.

For starters, Dox Biz is dropping sharply in class, and trainer Randy Morse wins at a 25% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. For another, Dox Biz is adding blinkers, which stand to sharpen his speed and potentially give him an uncontested lead.

Throw in the fact hot jockey Joe Talamo (a 31% winner when teaming up with Morse) is retaining the mount, and Dox Biz offers plenty of appeal. We’ll bet him to win and play him over #2 Kissalot (7-2) in a cold exacta.

$15 to win on #5 Dox Biz
$5 Exacta: 5 with 2
Total: $20

Remington Park: Race 6: Silver Goblin S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 10:27 p.m. ET)

#5 Shannon C (2-1) has been in hot form at Remington Park this fall. The six-year-old gelding enters Friday’s test off back-to-back stakes wins, including a three-length romp in the Oklahoma Classics Sprint S. sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Shannon C’s latest effort produced a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating, and anything close to a repeat should land him in the winner’s circle against Friday’s small field. We’ll certainly bet Shannon C to win, but we’ll also take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and play Shannon C over Oklahoma Classics Sprint runner-up #3 Mesa Moon (5-2) in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Shannon C
$10 Exacta: 5 with 3
Total: $30

Remington Park: Race 7: Slide Show S. (one mile, 10:55 p.m. ET)

#4 Morning Twilight (8-5) is 2-for-2 and has already defeated four of her six rivals in the Slide Show. The daughter of Morning Line was especially impressive in the Oklahoma Classics Lassie S. over this track last month, dueling for the lead before powering clear to win by 7 1/2 lengths.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Morning Twilight is the fastest filly in the Slide Show field, and her abundant tactical speed may yield an uncontested lead. From there, Morning Twilight will be tough to beat for hot jockey/trainer combo Stewart Elliot and Steve Asmussen.

#7 What a Babe (8-1), who dominated a one-mile maiden special weight at Remington two weeks ago, can round out the exacta for hot trainer Kari Craddock. We’ll play the exacta cold, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

$20 to win on #4 Morning Twilight
$10 Exacta: 4 with 7
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Golden Gate Fields, Race 2: $8,615 Super High 5 carryover (4:18 p.m. ET)

Looking for a non-jackpot carryover to chase this Friday? Then you’re advised to check out the eight-race card on tap at Golden Gate Fields. There are rolling $1 Super High 5 carryovers throughout the card, and Race 2—the first in which the Super High 5 will be offered—features a carryover pool of $8,615.

Race 2 is a $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile over the Tapeta track, and at first glance, it seems straightforward to handicap. $1 Super High 5 wagers can quickly grow expensive to play, but we’ll aim to keep our budget for this occasion under $25.

To do so, we’ll start by keying logical favorite #3 Quick Time (8-5) on top. The three-year-old daughter of Zoffany hasn’t missed the board in her last six starts on turf and Tapeta, including a runner-up effort at the $12,500 maiden claiming level on Aug. 28. With five 70+ Brisnet Speed ratings this year, Quick Time consistently runs fast enough to challenge for victory at the $5,000 level, where the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Friday’s conditions is only 68.

Underneath, #8 Class Code (3-1) is a filly to consider for hot trainer Sheldon Paldanius, a 36% winner this year. Class Code failed to challenge in her Tapeta debut last month, running sixth in a $12,500 maiden claimer at Golden Gate, but descending to the $5,000 level can help her rebound.

#1 Stein’s Girl (4-1) and #2 She’s Expensive (9-2) represent the best of the established $5,000 maiden claiming form in Friday’s field. Stein’s Girl finished second twice over this class level during the summer and exits a decent fifth in a $12,500 claimer (where she finished ahead of Class Code), while She’s Expensive ran second over this track, distance, and class level on Oct. 22, earning a sharp 70 Brisnet Speed rating. Both should hit the board if they produce their typical performances on Friday.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

$1 Super High 5: 3 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 4,5,6,7 ($24)

Good luck!

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