Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 22

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 22nd, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Monday, Nov. 22 at Mahoning Valley and Remington Park, plus suggested singles for a Pick 5 carryover at Zia Park.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 7: Mahoning Distaff S. (six furlongs, 3:34 p.m. ET)

#12 Mundaye Call (7-2) has been facing tougher company than she’ll encounter at Mahoning Valley. The speedy daughter of Into Mischief has won multiple stakes and enters off a third-place finish in the Open Mind S. at Churchill Downs, where she ran third behind multiple graded stakes winners Sconsin and Bell’s the One.

Mundaye Call brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox and should be right in the thick of things if she produces her A-game. #10 Victim of Love (9-2), a two-time winner of the Vagrancy H. (G3) at Belmont Park, can complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #12 Mundaye Call
$5 Exacta: 12 with 10
Total: $25

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Steel Valley Sprint S. (six furlongs, 4:07 p.m. ET)

Former claimer #4 Baby Yoda (3-1) has risen to a high level since transferring to the care of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. After smashing starter allowance and allowance events at Saratoga with triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings, the three-year-old gelding ran third in the Vosburgh S. (G2), beaten only by next-out Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) third-place finisher Following Sea and Grade 1 winner Firenze Fire.

Baby Yoda has plenty of tactical speed, but he isn’t a need-the-lead type, which sets the stage for a perfect trip in this speed-laden renewal of the Steel Valley Sprint. Gallant Bob S. (G2) third-place finisher #7 Real Talk (4-1) can round out the exacta while dropping in class.

$20 to win on #4 Baby Yoda
$5 Exacta: 4 with 7
Total: $25

Remington Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:26 p.m. ET)

#2 Glimpse of Glory (7-2) has been a picture of consistency competing in maiden special weights against fellow Oklahoma-breds. The sophomore gelding has cracked the trifecta in all five of his starts while showcasing a variety of running styles, and he enters off a game runner-up effort at Remington where he posted a career-best 70 Brisnet Speed rating.

There isn’t much speed in Monday’s field, so Glimpse of Glory—the pacesetter in two of his last three starts—figures to secure a favorable trip on the front end. We’ll bet Glimpse of Glory to win and key him over #3 Power Wizard (3-1) in a small exacta.

$20 to win on #2 Glimpse of Glory
$5 Exacta: 2 with 3
Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 6: $548 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

Good news for carryover chasers! It looked as though there wouldn’t be any non-jackpot carryovers up for grabs on Monday, but then a series of tricky results on Sunday at Zia Park tossed up a $548 prize pool in the track’s 50-cent Pick 5.

It might not be a huge carryover, but the sequence looks playable (and winnable) on a modest budget. Here are a couple of suggested singles to get you started:

Race 8: $5,000 Claiming: #6 I Am Allthatyouare (9-5)

I Am Allthatyouare has been a formidable sprinter since arriving at Zia Park and transitioning to the care of trainer Dick Cappellucci. In his local debut, the five-year-old gelding employed pace-tracking tactics to win a $5,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Then he ran fifth as the favorite in a deep $5,000 claimer over the same distance, a race from which the top three finishers all returned to win their next starts.

These efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 71, and I Am Allthatyouare will stick to the same 6 1/2-furlong distance for Monday’s test. Considering his rivals have largely struggled to crack the 70 Brisnet Speed rating plateau in recent starts, I Am Allthatyouare looms as the horse to beat. Throw in the fact Cappellucci wins at a 28% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start, and I Am Allthatyouare looks like a viable single.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight: #2 Bonfire Party (3-1)

Never off the board in five starts against maiden special weight company, Bonfire Party ran gamely in his first start at Zia last month. After pressing a hot pace sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs, the four-year-old gelding settled for second place by half a length.

This strong showing produced a 79 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the par winning figure (76) for Monday’s conditions. Considering none of his rivals have posted a figure higher than 72, Bonfire Party is easily the fastest horse on paper. Unless one of the first-time starters steps up with a big run on debut, Bonfire Party should be able to deliver a winning performance for ultra-hot trainer Greg Green, who has gone 5-for-16 (31%) at Zia this meet.

We’ll view Bonfire Party as perhaps the likeliest winner in the Pick 5 sequence.

Good luck!

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