Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 29

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 29th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Nov. 29 at Mahoning Valley and Remington Park, including an inexpensive ticket for Mahoning’s $1,964 Pick 4 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Allowance (six furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#6 Quiet Amigo (2-1) is surely the runner to beat in this allowance sprint. Two starts back, the three-year-old gelding obliterated a six-furlong maiden special weight at Mahoning Valley, leading all the way to win by 4 3/4 lengths with a career-best 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

Quiet Amigo subsequently failed by just half a length to stretch his speed in a one-mile allowance at Mahoning, finishing second after leading into the stretch. Cutting back to six furlongs should make Quiet Amigo tough to catch under jockey Erik Barbaran, who has gone 3-for-9 (33%) teaming up with trainer Richard Zielinski over the past two months.

#1 Masterofthehounds (3-1), third in an Oct. 27 allowance over this track and distance, can complete a chalky exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Quiet Amigo
$5 Exacta: 6 with 1
Total: $25

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Allowance (one mile, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#6 See the Pyramids (9-2) is shipping in from the Kentucky circuit, where he employed pace-tracking tactics to finish third in a $10,000 claimer at Churchill Downs last month. The son of Cairo Prince was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths while earning a sharp 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

See the Pyramids is fast enough to compete against allowance company at Mahoning, and he has enough tactical speed to stay within shouting range of the pace in this compact field. His 9-2 morning line odds are enticing, so we’ll bet See the Pyramids to win and key him over #5 Comply (2-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #6 See the Pyramids
$5 Exacta: 6 with 5
Total: $25

Remington Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 6:18 p.m. ET)

#8 Way too Pretty (4-1) looks live at a fair price in this maiden route for juveniles fillies. The Steve Asmussen trainee finished fourth and seventh in her first two starts racing one mile on grass (including a Kentucky Downs event won by future graded stakes winner California Angel), then switched things up to rally and finish third in a 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint at Remington Park.

Running long on dirt might just be the ticket to success for Way too Pretty. Certainly her pedigree indicates she’ll relish Monday’s conditions—sire Pioneerof the Nile ran second in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and famously sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, while dam Quickest previously foaled one-mile Las Virgenes S. (G1) winner Callback.

At 4-1, Way too Pretty is worth betting to win and playing over #4 Brodie Baby (7-2) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #8 Way too Pretty
$5 Exacta: 8 with 4
Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley, Race 5: $1,964 Pick 4 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)

It’s not every day one sees a Pick 4 carryover on the table, but Mahoning Valley has tossed up a rare exception for Monday. The track’s 50-cent Pick 4 boasts a $1,964 prize pool, and in the event no one assembles a winning ticket, 50% of the pool will be dispersed as consolation among bettors who select the highest number of winners.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence, then assemble an inexpensive $8 ticket:

Race 5: $8,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs)

#3 Frills (8-5) won a $20,000 claimer at Saratoga two starts back and will be a force to reckon with if she brings her A-game. But Frills recently disappointed in a $20,000 starter allowance at Keeneland, running fifth after carving out the pace. There’s a ton of speed in this field, so we’ll throw in stretch-running #8 J P’s Gladys (5-1) as backup.

Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs)

#7 Mis Elain E Us (9-5) has proven to be a capable allowance runner on the Ohio circuit, and she’s held her own against tough company in Kentucky, finishing third in a $10,000 starter allowance at Keeneland last month. But #3 Lucky to Have Me (4-1) has posted similar Brisnet Speed ratings, so we’ll use both to be on the safe side.

Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#2 Cardioversion (8-5) hasn’t missed the exacta in seven starts on the Ohio circuit, including her last five runs in a row. Runner-up in a $5,000 claimer at Mahoning last month, Cardioversion brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and should be tough to beat for hot trainer Jeffrey Radosevich. #7 Rack Daddy (6-1)—cutting back in distance offer a series of efforts against tougher company on the East Coast—might be the only one with upset potential.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

Coupled entrymates #1 Lelawala (6-5) and #1A Jess for Kicks (6-5) are logical favorites, but Lelawala has never run on dirt, and Jess for Kicks finished behind #3 Gray Fashion (7-2) in her debut earlier this month. Using the entrymates and Gray Fashion in equal strength should give us every chance to close out the Pick 4 on a winning note

50-cent Pick 4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 2,7 with 1,3 ($8)

Good luck!

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