Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Sep. 1

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August 31st, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Sep. 1 at Delaware Park, Kentucky Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $19,339 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Saratoga.
  • Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Salisbury (UK).
  • $1,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Hit the early Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday from July 14 through Sept. 15 to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Delaware Park: Race 6: Dover S. (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Cold Feet (9-5) ran out of his skin when debuting in a $25,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance, leading all the way to win easily by nine lengths. The performance was flattered when runner-up #6 Mean Tweets (8-1) returned to win his next start at the same class level.

Cold Feet is conditioned by ultra-hot trainer Cathal Lynch, who has won at a 39% rate at Delaware Park this year. Throw in jockey Mychel Sanchez (a 39% winner teaming up with Lynch over the last two months), and Cold Feet looks ready to deliver victory over Colonial Downs allowance winner #7 Riccio (5-2).

Kentucky Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#11 Margaret Burbidge (3-1) ran reasonably well when debuting in the Colleen S. at Monmouth Park, rallying to finish fourth by 2 3/4 lengths in the five-furlong turf dash. This effort produced a solid 83 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest figure in Thursday’s field.

Trainer Wesley Ward has gone 9-for-32 (28%) saddling experienced juveniles at Kentucky Downs since 2017, so the stats suggest Margaret Burbridge will fire a competitive shot while descending into the maiden ranks.

We’ll place a large win bet on Margaret Burbidge and call it a day.

  • $30 to win: #11 Margaret Burbidge

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: $15,000 Starter Optional Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 5:19 p.m. ET)

#6 Girl Named Patsy (7-2) ran well in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer over this course and distance last month, rallying to finish fourth by 1 1/4 lengths. Her reward was an 84 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last-out figure posted by any horse in Thursday’s field.

Girl Named Patsy is dropping in class for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Orlando Mojica and Armando Hernandez, who have gone 2-for-4 (50%) teaming up together over the last two months. She looks ready to beat the speedy #5 Je Suis Belle (5-2) to the winner’s circle.

  • $20 to win: #6 Girl Named Patsy
  • $5 Exacta: 6 with 5
    Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Charles Town, Race 4: $19,339 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Pick 5 at Charles Town (featuring a low 12% takeout rate) has tossed up a $19,339 carryover for Thursday.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble $30 worth of tickets:

Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs)

Pacesetters win 60% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town, a powerful success rate that suggests we have to use #4 Travel Girl (8-5), a consistent frontrunner who ran second in a six-furlong sprint over this class level at Penn National last time out. She’s cutting back in distance for her second start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Timothy Kreiser and should be tough to catch, although #3 Reine Secret (3-1) has put up some competitive Brisnet Speed ratings at Charles Town and can’t be dismissed.

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs)

#8 Arrowwood (2-1) has finished fourth and fifth in her last two starts against $15,000 claiming company at Charles Town and should appreciate dropping in class under hot jockey Arnaldo Bocachica, a 34% winner teaming up with trainer Jeff Runco over the last two months. But #2 Cruz in the Castle (9-5) posted a sharp 70 Brisnet Speed rating when defeating #4 I B Nasty (5-1) by a neck over this class level on July 15, and any one of these three might be capable of winning.

Race 6: $5,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs)

#5 Be Be Bop (1-1) routinely sets the pace and boasts an impressive 11-for-24 lifetime record at Charles Town. He finished a close third in a $15,000 allowance optional claimer for West Virginia-breds over this track and distance on June 17 and looms as a formidable favorite for hot trainer Kevin Patterson, who strikes at a 36% rate with horses running back on 46 to 90 days of rest. But #3 Zaino Boyz (5-2) has posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings while finishing second in a pair of $5,000 claimers sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town and may be capable of giving Be Be Bop a tussle.

Race 7: $5,000 Starter Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs)

#5 Odie (6-5) dominated a $12,500 allowance optional claimer at Mountaineer last time out, earning a career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating. This pure speedster boasts a near-perfect 3-2-1-0 record at Charles Town and should be tough to catch over this 4 1/2-furlong trip. We’ll make Odie a short-priced single.

Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs)

#6 Wolf Creek Pass (6-5) is a pure pacesetter entering off three straight runner-up efforts over this track, distance, and class level. But it’s been a long time since Wolf Creek Pass visited the winner’s circle, so we’ll also include the pace-tracking #1 Hurricane Director (6-1), who has been posting similar Brisnet Speed ratings.

  • $1 Pick 5: 3, 4 with 2, 4, 8 with 3, 5 with 5 with 1, 6 ($24)
  • $1.50 Pick 5: 4 with 8 with 1, 3 with 5 with 1, 6 ($6)
    Total: $30

Good luck!