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Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Sept. 14

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 14th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Sept. 14 at Assiniboia Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $773 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#3 Milagre Do Sol (7-2) is a half-sibling to Stays in Vegas and Miss Technicality, both stakes winners on turf. With this promising grass breeding in her corner, Milagre Do Sol is a contender to challenge while debuting on turf.

Trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 2-for-7 (29%) debuting juveniles over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course since 2020, so Milagre Do Sol also has an encouraging trainer stat in her corner. We’ll bet Milagre Do Sol to win and key her over #5 Morgan’s Bluff (5-2) in the exacta.

  • $20 to win on #3 Milagre Do Sol
  • $5 Exacta: 3 with 5
    Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Hoosier Heartland S. (1 1/16 miles, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#8 Hungarian Princess (2-1) boasts a flashy 13-7-4-0 record at Horseshoe Indianapolis and is 2-for-2 this year, winning the Shelby County S. and Checkered Flag S. sprinting six furlongs. But she’s primarily a sprinter and is 0-for-2 racing 1 1/16 miles, so stretching out in distance is a question mark.

We’ll try to beat Hungarian Princess with #7 Fireball Baby (3-1). She’s making her 2022 debut, but trainer Philip Bauer wins at a respectable 13% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Fireball Baby won the Hoosier Heartland S. and Lady Fog Horn S. racing 1 1/16 miles over this track last year.

  • $20 to win on #7 Fireball Baby
  • $10 Exacta: 7 with 8
    Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Winnipeg Futurity (six furlongs, 9:35 p.m. ET)

#6 Lady Cop (5-2) is undefeated in three starts, including a pair of stakes at Assiniboia Downs. On Aug. 29, she trounced male rivals by three lengths in the 5 1/2-furlong Osiris S.

Lady Cop is facing males again, including last month’s Canadian Juvenile S. winner #1 Cuban Cobra (9-5), but she’s the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and should be tough to catch. Lady Cop has yet to be headed at any point of call in a race, and trainer Michael Nault strikes at a 41% rate with horses who won their previous race.

  • $15 to win on #6 Lady Cop
  • $15 Exacta: 6 with 1
    Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer, Race 8: $773 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Care to chase a non-jackpot carryover on Wednesday night? Then you’re advised to check out the action at Mountaineer, where Race 8 (the final event of the evening) boasts a $773 Super High 5 carryover.

Race 8 is a $4,000 claimer for non-winners of four races lifetime, and the distance is 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Eight horses have been entered, which equates to 6,720 possible outcomes.

The morning line odds suggest this race is ripe for conquest by the speedy #3 Spanish Soul (6-5), whose jockey—Alex Gonzalez—has compiled a 20% win rate at Mountaineer this meet. Spanish Soul won a $4,000 claimer for non-winners of three races lifetime over this track and distance on July 24, but two subsequent starts over Wednesday’s class have produced less successful fourth- and third-place finishes.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Spanish Soul isn’t a standout against this field. #7 Tommy Tuesday (4-1) has cracked the trifecta in three straight $4,000 claimers at Mountaineer, including two over Wednesday’s precise class level, and along the way he’s run faster than Spanish Soul.  #4 Gatto Marrone (9-2) also seems like a good fit for this field; in his most recent sprint start, he won a $4,000 claimer for non-winners of three races at Mountaineer with a competitive Brisnet Speed rating.

So how should we bet the Super High 5? We’ll certainly use Spanish Soul, but only in equal strength with Tommy Tuesday and Gatto Marrone. We’ll count on one of these three to win, another to finish second, and the final to finish in the top four.

Beyond the logical favorites, we’ll throw #6 Jackzilla (10-1) into the mix. He ran third in an unrestricted $4,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mountaineer last time out, earning a decent 68 Brisnet Speed rating. Under hot jockey Odhair Mayta (a 25% winner this meet), Jackzilla has a shot to hit the board at enticing odds.

  • $1 Super High 5: 3,4,7 with 3,4,7 with 3,4,7 with 6 with 5,8 ($12)
  • $1 Super High 5: 3,4,7 with 3,4,7 with 6 with 3,4,7 with 5,8 ($12)
    Total: $24

Good luck!

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